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I don't see how this is possible. There are constraints on the speed at which information can move and the number of steps required to compete a given task. The improvement cannot continue, let alone accelerate, indefinitely without bounds.

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OK - sure. Probably.

But it can continue to inconceivable levels before it gets to that point.

Okay, how can we be certain even about that? It sounds just as plausible to me that the improvements will become asymptotic and boring, not exponential or inconceivable -- and how can we make any confident prediction at all about the heights these models will reach? The technology those heights require doesn't exist, and its existence isn't guaranteed, even if it is possible.

> how can we be certain

Certain of predictions? I think that's an unreasonable ask.

And I'm comfortable with my prediction. Rather than argue about it - let's wait a year and see what happens, and then we can discuss it.

> I think that's an unreasonable ask.

Oh, good point! I misread your comment. Sorry for that!

> Rather than argue about it - let's wait a year and see what happens, and then we can discuss it.

Deal!

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