I suspect there people who are betting they can arbitrage them, such as getting an allotment of them and renting them out. (I'm not talking about the scale of a single card in your house, but in DC operators or those who have racks leased already)
Probably related, china banned imports of the 5090d in may.
- https://videocardz.com/newz/heres-why-rtx-5090-costs-5000-ai...
- https://videocardz.com/newz/inside-chinas-mass-conversion-of...
But also, it is. You can resell them.
I find it mind boggling that either AI is a bubble or AI is the next industrial revolution and no other options can be considered because reasons(tm).
Token costs are dropping, yes they are, but how much of that is better software and algorithms vs better hardware and that's too galaxy brain for the simpletons trying to predict what's next.
So what's next? IMO more tokens and lots of disappointment that more tokens alone neither cures cancer nor brings the apocalypse and further waves of innovation. AI continues apace.
Short term, AI is overrated. Long term, you ain't seen nuthin' yet... Now vote down that positivity, we're doomed! DOOMED!
Roughly speaking Paying $2T for even $65Bn _profit_ is a bad deal, historically speaking. (~30x P/E)
But also, ~20*$65B is ~1.3 billion and a healthy PE ratio just like Cisco. but that's not good for your narrative, is it?
Oh no! all those early founders who thought they'd be worth $3.8B will only be worth $2.6B! Whatever shall they do?
My narrative? What narrative is that?
and 30x 65 = 1950 which is pretty close to 2T.
I'm not sure what you're on about or if you're just taking the piss?
You guys never stop.
But 20 is a classical and fundamentally healthy PE ratio for a healthy business and that would value Anthropic at ~$1.3T if that's what you're getting at and the early employees would all still be billionaires.
Mind you, I hate both Anthropic and OpenAI for their conduct in this space, but I wouldn't argue with the numbers. I'd argue with the blatant fearmongering towards regulatory capture but that's galaxy brain nonsense I know.
But the tech industry PE ratio is about 28. Since 30 is crazy, what's a reasonable PE ratio and when are you going to short the NASDAQ on margin and make your first billion, you market genius you?
IMO there's a silly agenda in play here driven by prominent influencers and notorious hedgers who were recently forced to buy calls on their favorite short (insert Nelson laugh). The financing thing will take care of itself in the long run just like the dark fiber did. And just like VC loses most of their bets and makes it up on the winners or we wouldn't have so many expensive houses in Woodside.
This essentially means that it takes twenty years to recover the price through earnings. The US market has been super strange since the GFC, and with higher interest rates, I don't see these prices continuing unless the machine god is invented real soon.
No machine god needed. Just more applied AI and there's plenty of it clogged in the FDA pipeline already. That clog is more about the limitations of people and who they elect than it is about limitations of AI. I has fansee peehud 2 BTW. AI doesn't disgruntle me, but both sides of the AI psychosis coin sure do and that coin absolutely 100% has 2 equally ridiculous sides.
In the US market, with 4% of the world's population and 60% of equity value.
Even if it's been common for a while, just taking a step back shows you that it's a pretty wild metric.
> I has fansee peehud 2 BTW
I picked this username 15 odd years ago, not sure why you felt the need to call it out.
Rest assured that it did not, in fact, disabuse me of my belief that I’m at least partially successful in retaining a level head.
But it wouldn't be good for podcast culture, now would it?