It’s hard to argue against what Zitron is focusing on, as it’s just numbers and simple analysis.

What Dan Luu is doing with that post is an act of misdirection (if not clumsy attempt at character assassination): avoiding the entirety of Zitron’s numbers and analysis (which can’t be refuted) and instead narrowly focusing on “predictions” that one can spin a hundred different ways.

If that’s convincing to the extent that you are dismissing Zitron’s numbers and analysis, you have a major critical thinking problem.