Most people would have used that pile of circumstantial evidence to close the case. But you can't fool gwern (or L).
The best thing about this analysis is that it reflects the thinking of the one of the main characters in the anime. This seems like how the detective L would solve the same problem. has always been one of my favorite fictional characters because I greatly admire his (fictional) rigor and inductive abilities. Leave it to gwern to apply the same level of super detective skills to answering a question about the movie. It seems like a lot of work for a small point, but we'd all be better off if more people were this thorough in eliminating possibilities.
I saw the japanese movie and it was good, but probably best for people who were already fans of the anime. An americanized version might open up a much broader audience, though they'd have to put a lot of money behind it.