2. My point was that you don't understand the basics of their position. Just repeating "they're wrong" does not disabuse me of that notion. Also, anything about a "nanny state" is too far below the standards of this forum to reply to at all, sorry.
3. Superintelligence is not closer to speech than nuclear science, obviously. How often does speech lead to thousands, millions, or billions of deaths all on its own? And "their argument relies on part of their argument" isn't a rebuttal; if you read some of the papers, it is far from a presupposition.
4. I'm not sure what you're getting at here, sorry. Oh maybe this is a continuation of the above, rather than a reply to my #4? If so: yes, that's the core of the danger. You have successfully surmised one of the most serious threats.
5. Ok.
6. This just feels like a "many people are saying" argument. No, the patterns and trends are not clear: that's literally the basic question we're discussing right now.
7. That's still not what regulatory capture looks like, but also: no, they do not. Dario met him for the first time recently, and it was about intimidating him into compliance after they refused to make autonomous weapons for the pentagon. Altman has been there a few times, but A) not "on a regular basis", and B) again, that's not how regulatory capture works. The only AI CEO close to Trump is Musk, and even then it's obviously... complicated.
8. Literally the textbook definition of an ad-hominem lol. Never seen it stated so plainly and baselessly!
9. Great question! This is a large part of what's examined by the relevant literature, and they have many compelling arguments of various kinds. My favorite, layperson-targeted version is the blog post Optimality is the tiger, and agents are its teeth[1]
"Predeterminism" isn't a framework. I think the gist of what you're saying here is just "you never know for certain what's gonna happen so don't worry about it", which doesn't need rebuttal.
Yes, transparency and reproducibility sound great! It should be mandatory to conduct this research safely! We are 100% in agreement, in the end. We're just in disagreement about whether you can pattern-match this discussion to libertarian talking points from the early 2010s.
[1]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality...