A sober analysis, but this is the same story that's been told for years at this point. I haven't been buying new shares, but I'd rather avoid the capital gains tax if I can.
I have been thinking of selling my S&P500 fund shares for a little while (at least a majority). The past few years have been dips followed by sharp rises seemingly fueled by news events. The US midterms are a big event and if, after the election, there is an increase of hostilities in the middle east I think that might cause a drop. Of course the S&P has mostly gone up the past few years and trying to time the market is maybe not the best strategy.
This is exactly what call options are for, right? You can write an in-the-money call option dated for next year and lock in the price now, expecting them to be called away at the exercise date.