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The question now is how much of AVIF's advantage comes from the encoder compared to the image format itself. If it is the encoder, does JPEG XL even stand a chance of catching up? AVIF will certainly receive further improvements, albeit at a diminishing rate.

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https://giannirosato.com/blog/post/case-against-jxl/ suggests JXL is fundamentally limited. We'll see. There's a race on and it's great!

Note: Author has worked on the most popular AV1 encoder, seems to be working on his own commercial AV1 encoder, and bases his suggestions on an educated guess. Presumably the authors of JPEG XL had reasons to believe otherwise when introducing JPEG XL.

Not to call into question the article’s author’s expertise, just to point out that they are a single individual and not an authoritative source (which you haven’t implied, but some people might read that way).

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