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Comment by variadix | Hacker News Reader

This is making the same mistake: looking at where AI is now and not at the rate of progress it’s made. If you have a thinking machine that is more capable than every human on Earth and thinks 100x faster, how long do you think it will take for it to design humanoid robots.

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I don’t think designing is very difficult. It’s actually having the resources and economic capacity to make millions of them, enough to “replace all jobs.”

It’s also a fallacy to assume that current progress implies future progress at the same rate. This is very basic technological history.

Again, a sci-fi fantasy for at least the next century.

> It’s actually having the resources and economic capacity to make millions of them, enough to “replace all jobs.”

Like that newfangled invention called the automobile. We could never produce millions of them to substantially replace all other means of transportation.

EDIT: Joking aside, I think that when humanoid robots get good enough (I'm predicting 5-10 years), there will an insatiable demand for them in every possible residential and commercial application. If we have as many cars and portable supercomputers (i.e., cellphones) as we have people, why is it hard to imagine producing as many robots as we have people?

Humanoid robots that perform human actions to the level of a human are orders of magnitude more complex than carriages with engines attached.

And there’s also the economics of it all. They won’t replace people if people are cheaper.

But I don’t disagree that eventually it’ll happen. Just that this has little to do with LLMs.

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