Literally zero, but that never stopped a good conspiracy theory, especially when half of HN hates the big labs because of fear for their own economic future.
OpenAI and Anthropic aren’t even slightly worried about DeepSeek.
OpenAI and Anthropic aren’t even slightly worried about DeepSeek.
May this kind of worry find me…
It's quite hard to have the valuation of Anthropic if they are limited to US.
> Literally zero, but that never stopped a good conspiracy theory
Are you living under a rock and never read any of Dario's blog posts?
Let me give you an example, here: https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential
Section "1. *Regulation* and public safety" (emphasis mine), then under it:
> AI companies that develop advanced AI models must have strong security standards that protect their model weights
You can't "protect model weights" if the weights are openly available, ergo this is an explicit call for regulation to make open weights illegal.
Presumably you'd want the AI companies to protect their weights to keep them from falling into the hands of bad actors. But the US can't make open weights illegal anywhere except the US, which does very little to keep them out of the hands of bad actors (most of whom are outside of the US).
The model makers are bricking the models with their system prompts, and even the tools are tamper proof.
You can only use it their way. They think we’re stupid.
And their way is the shit way, the babyproofed way, while they talk to you about their unfucked models hacking out of their labs and hacking into other labs, and reminding you you have zero rights.
Fuck them twice, then once more… This is about compute. Who owns compute. China is saying fuck you all we can scale things bigger than you can imagine. And they can! They have so much more energy! Theyre closer to commercial fusion than us too. Meanwhile our guys are trying to… regulate? Lol
Training and serving LLM's is massively parallel. Your bottleneck is either in energy or chips. China will catch up on chips fully decades before we catch up on energy. Arguably, this is already happening: here in the USA, we have lots of chips, but we are seeing our electricity bills skyrocket as more datacenters come online. We are powering those datacenters with natural gas turbines, not solar, wind and nuclear. Right now, to purchase one of those, you are on a 5-year waitlist. There's your timeline!
China is invested, from a regulatory, cultural, workforce, strategic, and technological standpoint, in an energy abundant future. We are not invested -- and in fact, actively sabotaging ourselves -- on all of those fronts.
Once they acquire chips, we lose, basically permanently. Look at what Huawei is doing recently and what is on their roadmap to understand how fast this catching-up is taking place. I'm sure that David Sacks would say that our innovation motor is pulling their copycat caboose along, as our monopolist tech companies steam ahead towards the frontier. I am not so sure. They are already ahead of us in many technologies. Speaking of technologies, they're building natural gas turbines in house, starting in 2025.