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Comment by teiferer | Hacker News Reader

Are you sure that's how this works?

Let's see, my grandparents were about 160cm when they were 35. My parents were about 170cm when they were 35 and I am about 180cm around 35. You are saying I can expect my grandchildren to be around 200cm at that age and their grandchildren 220cm?

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Or we could assume since new data is increasingly AI generated then the next generation of models are inherently born out of incestuous relationships so I would imagine Claude's grandson is going to be a dwarf.

Of course it is possible also that Claude will marry a chinese model (since it's asian odds are it is also smarter) bringing some diversity into the "gene" pool. Or better yet, a Russian supermodel.

Are you sure that AI model progression and the height of your family members are 35 is related? It seems unlikely but I guess you'd know better than I.

That's their point, we can't assume model capabilities will go up linearly forever just because they have increased quickly in the past

"We're running out of data, so LLM progress is hitting a wall" was a prominent late-2024 narrative. Back then many experts including Ilya used the word "plateau" when describing LLM progress. No one is using that word now, and there is no evidence we are about to reach a plateau, even though we ran out of data long ago.

The way Claude writes code comments there will be no shortage of data.

If we didn't have any humans before your grandparents, and these were the only data points we have to extrapolate from, then, yes, this would be a very reasonable prediction.

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