I don't follow Rust as much as I wish I could if I had more free time.
What platforms are supported in Rust that don't support Java?
Does Rust have diagnostics, monitoring and debugging support anywhere near JVM quality?
PTC, Aicas, microEJ, Ricoh, Xerox, Cisco, and several M2M vendors.
The first three even have bare metal variants, where the runtime is the OS.
Naturally they aren't targeting ESP32, Arduino, PIC class of devices.
Most rewrite language X in Y are justifications after the fact, when the real reason is language Y was cool for whatever reason.
I know this is a heresy in some online religious groups pretending to care about engineering but that's reality.
That phrase "complex enough" seems to be quite load bearing.
At which point does complexity reach the tipping point where a Java implementation becomes faster? From my experience, the more complex the application, the more enerprisey the Java code becomes, relying heavily on dynamic capabilities that make it slow even by Java standards.