I tested it once, I'm in on the 20x claude max ($200/month) and I either max my weekly limit every week or come really close. But it only took 2-3 days to hit $200 spend with api keys.
We have two wildly different cohorts of people. Those who see these tools as a technological curiosity and those who see them as a means to a specific end. I know that if I finish a task with a certain set of constraints that I will get paid a certain amount of money. I'd much rather be HITL on one very good agent loop if there is real money on the table. If you are mostly having fun, being curious, or exploring (which is fine!) then the cost of subscriptions might feel safer. Running an IRL version of factorio can get very expensive.
I also think the API tokens perform better but I have zero evidence other than observing the quality of my work product relative to that of my peers. I have almost a religious fervor about using prepaid tokens now. I am still using GPT5.5 in my copilot with custom model configuration for most heavy lifting in visual studio. It is more than sufficient. My average monthly token cost is <$100. Paying for a subscription would be more expensive because I have a predictable and controllable amount of demand.
This is analogous to variable vs fixed rate electricity. Paying the real time wholesale price is a massive economic advantage if you can figure out how to control the demand side of the house.
Wholesale electricity is almost always cheaper.
Sorry, I have to be that guy... https://xkcd.com/386/
The analogy is false.
Domestic electricity is priced per kWh, wholesale electricity is priced per kWh, the latter is, as a rule, cheaper. It is not fixed vs variable rate.
> wholesale electricity is priced per kWh
> the latter is, as a rule, cheaper.
I think you’re missing some detail. Why do two things that are “priced per kilowatt hour” have to have different prices?
Average Revenues/Sales (¢/kWh)
End-use sector July 2026
Residential 18.31
Commercial 14.53
Industrial 9.77
Transportation 14.97
--
Total 14.99
The reason is mostly higher consumption = lower average price.
Depends on the industrial or commercial contract, but yes.
Also my state recently mandated all residents be placed on time-of-use plans of some form.
YES. You got it, thanks! That's why I was referencing #386 :)
From 500 hours working on my mobile app project outside of work, I can confidently say that using anywhere between 2 to 10 conversations to parallelize work is much more effective in my project.
The models being served in the API are the same as via the subscription, there are no shenanigans here, particularly not concerning quality.
And GPT 5.5 was great at the time, I made heavy use of it for my project, but it's long outdated and already being retired.
You also mentioned using it in copilot, which is a third-rate harness that is frustratingly buggy and inefficient.
There's no comparison to Opus 5.5 in Claude Code.
Use whatever works for you, but frankly, I think you should try something new.
> I know that if I finish a task with a certain set of constraints that I will get paid a certain amount of money.
So not salary… ok. That explains some of it. Getting paid by the task might flavor one’s approach. But also one could reason, more tasks, more pay… somewhat confusing.
> I also think the API tokens perform better but I have zero evidence other than observing the quality of my work product relative to that of my peers. I have almost a religious fervor about using prepaid tokens now
And this appears to be the other half. It looks no less futuristic than the more wireheaded approach, just different in form.
The reality is that the subscriptions are heavily subsidized. Pretty much every sub that's not run by one of the money-burning frontier labs has had to drop it or dramatically increase prices and lower limits in the last few months. Cheap tokens are an acquisition tool, not a real product. It sounds dramatic but it really is the drug dealer sales funnel.
At some point they're going to drop the real prices in your lab and you're going to have to figure out how to pay that much or pay someone else a lot less. Better to get a handle on it now.
So just wait until that happens? What's the point of scrimping and saving now? Not to mention you're paying for a premium in the meantime.
It does make me sharper I think. If you only ever use claude or whatever you don’t even really know exactly how tied to it you are.
Funny enough the drug dealer thing still holds. A deal’s a deal if you’re going to buy it anyway.
To better predict what they'll do with it we'd need to know the proportion of token usage via API vs subscription. Keeping an affordable, slightly unprofitable subscription to get people in isn't a bad idea. They also get marketing benefits from the word of mouth
Vibe-coders talk about surrendering understanding to the models, trusting that there will always be a model able to overcome and work through any technical debt they happen to accumulate, but the danger that still lurks there (at least for the naive) is that you'll need increasingly large contexts, increasingly sophisticated models, and increasingly large token spends just to keep that ball rolling.
Between profitable enterprise accounts being ineligible for subscription, eager but busy people paying for underutilized subscriptions, and naive vibe-coders falling into their pit trap, you can indeed imagine subsidized subscription accounts being available for a long time and remaining an effective value hack for people careful enough not to fall into the pit trap. But only insofar as they are that careful.
That’s risk management 101
Loss leaders are a thing so long as they actually do lead somewhere. If your primary value proposition is conveyed by the loss leader itself, where do you go from there?
I took your meaning as "they're gonna drop [a bad surprise on you by raising] the real prices"... so at least it's not quite as tortured as the ambiguous "support for version N dropped today" (where you often can't even infer the direction from context).
this isn't just a tangent, I'm having trouble understanding the point you're trying to make, which hinges entirely on deciding if you meant "drop" literally
“Drop [an unwelcome surprise] in your lap” is a common English idiom.
The real price for tokens at a specific level of intelligence is dropping rapidly. Between models improving and new hardware getting faster, I think prices will be going down, not up.
> Better to get a handle on it now.
I experiment with a lot of providers and models. I strongly disagree that anyone needs to start migrating now in preparation for prices maybe going up in the future.
It doesn’t make sense. Deal with a price increase when it happens, if it does.
Switching models and providers isn’t some huge lift. I can jump to a new model or even hardness and get a feel for it in a day or two. It’s not some huge undertaking that requires preparation and planning.
If prices go up, try something at that point in time. Don’t worry about it until then.
Then, both Anthropic and OpenAI in lockstep developed a enterprise pricing structure that openly coerced large businesses to pay API prices where it was feasible to spend $200/day rather than the comparatively cheap $200/mo.
Even if token pricing relative to intelligence does trend down over time, that doesn't mean the pricing structure will actually translate to lower costs, particularly in the cash cow B2B market.
Then when you consolidate all users to a single provider you find out you have a 2x to 3x larger bill because you… logically have more users at the same average token spend than the quote.
At my previous job, all while managing a full team, I did a lot of porting of legacy apps to modern standards to maintain various obligations. It was AI gen work in between meetings and paperwork. It was seen as such a success that I was asked to move to an IC role to focus on it within the “Elite new products team” that was supposed to be all AI and the latest tech. I showed up to find that they were pushing out low quality manually written code in 12 hour days six days per week to appear like LLMs were in use to save face because they lacked a token budget or the skills to properly manage one under the APIs. They had dismissed someone who had spent multiple thousands per month on Agent swarms. It was the perfect situation to make their 3x budget issue a 10-30x budget spend issue.
For many many reasons I left that job and got a new one but that was the cherry on top.
That doesn’t change anything about what I said, though. The relative price per task or price per unit intelligence is also going down in the APIs too.
> Even if token pricing relative to intelligence does trend down over time, that doesn't mean the pricing structure will actually translate to lower costs, particularly in the cash cow B2B market.
What are you talking about? The APIs serve the same models as the subscriptions. Unless you think the price of APIs has been going up (it has not) this argument doesn’t make sense
This only applies under the assumption that everyone tokenmaxxes their subscription.
I have visibility across a few different Claude team subscriptions. I'd say roughly 10% of people max their subscriptions.
I think I've only seen one organization where the under-used subs don't more than pay for the tokenmaxxed ones.
And that is ignoring the 90% margin that API inference runs at.
$1k/person sounds like a lot, but a ten person team at $1k token burn / head / month is spending $120k. How much does a new hire cost, tco? Does velocity from one more person compare with velocity from one more person’s worth of tokens?
Sure, learning to be efficient matters. So does taking the time to consider cost vs alternative. You might be surprised by what you find, in either direction.
The share of tasks where "cheaper" models are enough also increases for same reason. For majority of use cases it will quickly become race to the bottom. And that means part of the pie for the "premium" models of frontier AI labs will quickly become smaller and smaller.
Like a big white truck or a 600mm lens, expensive gear should be purchased by an employer. I think most folks talking about API access are getting it through work/self-employment.
Anthropic needs to retune their personal plans. Opus is the Amelia Bedelia of models. Maddening! I shelled out $100 for Fable to drive Opus and finish a personal project, but that's probably my last time loading up on usage credits. I put a second $100 towards API credits so I could dink around with API access and understand conversations like these.
People who use API keys on their dime are usually running DeepSeek 4.x or GLM 5.x (Flash or otherwise) and similar models.
RE: Subsidies:
What if subscription costs are still high enough to be profitable (I believe they are for OpenAI).
Then maybe we should be saying that API users are paying an order of magnitude more than the cost, at least at the very top end (frontier models). Likely because big cos are willing to pay top dollar for what is the best and unmatched elsewhere.
Another thing of note is that when coding at 'scale' to my surprise over time with memory aggregation across users/sessions these models can be better than the evals would have you believe because they seem to be differently/less (?) RL'ed (aka actually listen to instructions), which results in them being more fastidious about writing memories and benefiting from them, especially over time. These are of course mostly subjective opinions but they were surprising, and not what we were expecting.
Relevant: the proxy we wrote and use: https://yapp.latchlabs.dev is partially open sourced: still working on releasing more of our memories stuff.
Someone who pays $20 a month may only use 10% of their max budget.
Different matter at work but even there we are paying for API costs and have a monthly allowance (starts at $200/month but increases fairly easy to get)
CLI Model Pct Remaining Reset Date claude all models 15% 3d claude Fable 50% 3d grok all models 0% 4d agy Gemini 36% 5d agy Claude and GPT models 0% 5d codex codex 0% 6d
And I also just used two of my three get-another-week-free tokens for codex.
If you've got an agentic swarm, or are working on multiple big projects at once, or have agents parsing data... you burn through tokens fast. The last four days in API would have cost me well over $3k.
1. In most cases, like this one, the product isn't heroin.
2. Drug dealers don't actually do that.
Turns out that drug dealers by and large prefer the straightforward approach of selling drugs to the huge market of people who want to take them.
And we're talking about subscription plans from OpenAI/Anthropic here. Switching to a different model and/or harness if the price changes isn't a "the world has run out of opioids and I'm going to need a detox center" level crisis.
This is a weirdly melodramatic analogy.
If you want to flatten everything to "all things habit forming are definitionally equivalent", you'll get some pretty funky results.
I'm not sure about that. Someone using AI for productivity every day will experience massive issues if you suddenly take it away.
It's even the whole business model of MS Copilot: They don't work with companies to have their data structured in the past or going forward.
They don't help you to structure your business "life", they offer a tool you consume to make sense of it while you use it.
The moment you stop using it, you'll struggle to even make sense of your own past actions.
> "2. Drug dealers don't actually do that."
It would be a weird business if they only WAIT for people to demand the more profitable drugs...
But the short version is that there are lots of people who want to buy any given drug and drug dealers sell them. I don't know exactly what you mean by "WAIT for people to demand the more profitable drugs", but there typically isn't a whole lot of waiting. There's a lot of demand out there. Giving away a bunch of free fentanyl to random people in the hopes that one of them instantly gets addicted would be a pretty wasteful and high risk sales tactic, especially given the number of people that want to buy it already.
┌─────────────────┬─────────┐
│ UTC day │ Cost │
├─────────────────┼─────────┤
│ Oct 16 │ $2.72 │
├─────────────────┼─────────┤
│ Oct 17 │ $300.82 │
├─────────────────┼─────────┤
│ Oct 18 │ $208.72 │
├─────────────────┼─────────┤
│ Oct 19 (so far) │ $208.29 │
└─────────────────┴─────────┘
Oct 16 I switched machine
Excludes work done on local and Claude Chrome plugin.
You spent $720 in four days on a $100 per month subscription? So that table isn't correct?
Do you mean the table shows what it'd have cost you if you weren't on the $100/m subscription?
Yep, that. There's tools out there that will add up your token usage and then estimate what it would be at API pricing. That's likely what they used.
We (some friends and I) built it because we wanted to understand how these things worked and also had max accounts. It has since grown into a ton more, but is still in essence a very full featured local proxy.