Instead of someone with knowledge fixing a leak under your sink, it'll be some kid who has never turned a wrench before, following some LLM instructions.
We're slowly turning our whole workforce into the worst call center you've ever called -- a bunch of idiots reading from a script with no agency or skills of their own.
You jest, but if you think about it, it's not too hard to see Idiocracy as a movie about AI [1]. What do you think humanity is going to be like after thousands of years of no selective pressure on intelligence and no practical value to knowledge and education?
Idiocracy is the coming AI Utopia: your great-great-great grandchildren spending their days yukking it up "Ow, My Balls!" and having even dumber kids.
[1] IIRC, the backstory of the movie has the automation developed after humanity started getting stupid, to keep things from falling apart, but it seems more realistic for it to happen the other way around.
Your floor is now clean.
Imagine if our benevolent AGI made Earth an utopia where everyone can achieve their full potential if they wish, then having first contact with another AGI. The alien AGI would ask if our AGI keeps these dumb humans as mementos, not realizing those humans as smart as they can possibly be.
When I was a kid, a landlord in my community decided to "fix" a broken heating unit at one of his properties himself to save money, and wound up killing all of his tenants due to CO poisoning. Those are the kinds of situations that we are risking by enabling DIY contract work.
But of course, with enough VC money you can take the Uber route and 'creatively interpret' the law
One is that an Uber rider is never put on a list of "can't ever ride on other services again", whereas if you try to sell a house that has unlicensed plumbing or electrical work done, it will show up on inspection and any smart buyer will walk (or run) away. Tons of real estate deals fall through because the seller did shoddy work like this and it will demonstrably reduce the value of your property because it's only worth what people are willing to pay.
This is also true for when you want an actual contractor to come work on your house. If a licensed contractor sees that you're trying to fix unlicensed work, they too will run away because they don't want to inherit the liability. I think the very red-tape nature of contracting work will be one of the things that protects it from this idiocy.
First, there's quite a lot of unlicensed work that is entirely legal in many places, and a lot of it is fairly common work -- replacing or repairing fixtures, for instance.
Second, there's no "list of unlicensed work" either -- sellers are required to disclose unpermitted work that they're aware of, but as you can imagine, compliance here is sometimes hard to enforce, as sellers often either don't know and minor work might not even be visible for a buyer to question. Yes, if you add on an addition or finish a basement without pulling permits, this is something that is more obvious. If a seller replaced a pipe in a wall, who is going to know?
Third, it depends on the property. You wouldn't want unpermitted work on a premium home in a premium neighborhood. But if you go shopping for a deal on a starter home in a rural area? Much of the inventory will have unpermitted work, there may be zero local enforcement, and the buyer will likely be planning on doing their own unpermitted work :)
Home improvement stores really wouldn't exist in the way that we know them if everything needed a permit.
> If a licensed contractor sees that you're trying to fix unlicensed work, they too will run away because they don't want to inherit the liability.
Many will be hesitant to fix shoddy work, but most will be fine with replacing it.
I have personally experienced several warranty calls for major appliances under warranty. The "tech" who shows up knows less about the appliance than I do, and the first thing they do is get on the phone with their own support call, who attempts to figure out what the issue is.
It's maddening for the consumer (me) because it (again, in my few experiences) doesn't produce a quality resolution quickly.
An actual appliance tech who still does service calls is like a unicorn for me - once I find one the are getting all my calls. My current guy for washers/driers tells me he is the remote tech for a few major brands, and spends a lot of his time each day on the phone with the onsite meat puppets.
I prefer the Chernobyl name for them - biorobots
Expert system? What's this, the 80s? :)
But yes, I agree with the main sentiment. That's basically what Amazon already is (and Uber).
You don't pay the plumber to replace the widget. You pay the plumber to look at the problem and know what widget to replace and the correct set of moves to do so without flooding the house. Good luck!
Cue the "Obviously, with a master plumber guiding them, they could do this!" non-counterpoint counterpoint because you've just destroyed the cost savings of not sending that master plumber to the site and if you try to make the master plumber multi-task, there goes the cognitive load burnout event horizon just like... Stay with me... REPLACING JUNIOR ENGINEERS WITH CODING AGENTS!
Kill me now. The Robot Apocalypse has already segued from tragedy to farce and the AI intelligentsia need to read more Adrian Tchaikovsky and less Eliezer Yudkowsky. I eagerly anticipate the downvotes once again for loving the science and technology of AI yet despising the breathless ridiculous hype on both sides of the AI wars. This is an alien mindset, I get it, but do try to convince me the error of my ways by the only way you know how to do.
Everybody thrives best when luck is on their side :)
Even the pros flood a house now & then. You have to figure they have insurance just in case.
Once the dust settles (or the water drains) an interesting indicator might be whether there is any difference in insurance rates between human and robot plumbers.
Every discussion I see here is working under “when they are another order or two of magnitude better than today.”
No one is saying masters are getting replaced today. But “you pay the x to look at the problem and know the y and know z” is literally just intelligence over complicated tasks. It gets replaced if these things get smarter. And there is not really a good reason to think they won’t besides “I don’t want them to” or “my identity is tied to them not getting smarter”.
But I welcome the attempt to build a domestic home repair robot as it's a valid attempt at getting AI better at something it's godawful at currently.