Disturbingly little evidence? I would hardly call that "disturbingly little"...
This does feel a lot like the "Agile era" that was the last silver bullet that was supposed to fix software development forever and the "Cloud era" that was supposed to fix infrastructure and deployments.
Agile had a few good ideas. Code reviews and automated tests are commonly used today.
It had a few plausible ideas that it took too far. We are better at recognising the value of incremental development over big up-front design today - despite the ironic clash this seems to be having with agentic workflows - but almost everyone hates stand-ups and lots of projects have gone off the rails by breaking things down far too much and never committing to anything and so never getting anywhere.
And it had plenty of ideas that almost all of us have thrown out as unpleasant and/or unworkable. Pair programming comes to mind immediately.
What didn't really change was the fundamental nature of software development. Did we adopt a few useful ideas and get a bit more efficient and improve quality a bit? Certainly. Did we get orders of magnitude better at anything and give up all the tried and tested ways of working in favour of radical new ones that never quite felt right? No.
On our current trajectory I'm expecting a broadly similar outcome for LLMs. They're now very good at some things. But they are still pretty bad at other things that also matter - and some of the reasons they are bad at them are an inherent part of how they work and therefore probably can't be overcome (at least not with incremental improvements on the technology that still basically work the same way). So I am expecting to see a period of consolidation with a lot of organisations pulling back from their dramatic leaps into the unknown and downsizing of dev teams once the big AI companies start squeezing financially and the problems of developer burnout and stagnating skills and low morale that we're already seeing after just a few months become endemic. And then as I suggested in another comment I think it's also increasingly possible that we'll see developers unionise and/or push for professional regulation and licensing so they can resist the pressure to just ship whatever their agent wrote without even bothering to check it but still being responsible when inevitably things then go wrong.
In particular I don't see why we should assume that the capabilities of AI programming tools will continue to improve at the same pace. There is no obvious source of new and high quality data for anyone to slurp up to train the next generation of models. Much of the change over the past year hasn't come from the incremental improvements in the models anyway. In fact I've even seen a few comments online arguing that some of the newer models had regressed in some respects. It has been the shift towards using agents and automating the incremental refinement of work in progress instead of waiting for human intervention that has been the big change and I don't think we really know yet whether the problems we're already seeing with that approach can be resolved effectively.