Comment by rectang | Hacker News Reader

Comment by rectang | Hacker News Reader

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The majority of the Republican primary electorate demands Trump and won’t stand for elected Republicans who challenge him. There have been a fair number of Republicans who have stood up to him, but most of them are already out or on their way out.

It’s basically impossible for elected Republicans to hold Trump to account without losing office, and even if Republicans get wiped out in the coming election (I’m skeptical), I doubt that dynamic will change. If the price of gas weren’t so high, Republicans would be fairly happy with Trump — he’s basically kept his promise to be a hard-ass on immigration and other culture war issues.

I don’t expect a Republican reckoning that would please Democrats. Future Republican standard bearers will probably be very similar to Trump but more competent — akin to Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Orban, Modi, and others.

Exactly. Even if Trump disappeared today, the voters/mentality who elected him is not going anywhere. All they need is someone else to say "I am exactly like Trump and will keep doing everything he did," and that politician will be their top candidate. (R) is no longer the party of guys like Mitt Romney and John McCain.

While that much is true, I'm not sure how nationally successful that movement would be without Trump at the center of the cult of personality. The ideological movement will keep control of the party, and ideologically-motivated people will turn out to vote for it, but I think they will lose a lot of the low-information, incoherent-ideology people that Trump was able to bring into the tent once he's gone.

> If the price of gas weren’t so high, Republicans would be fairly happy with Trump

This is the sad truth. Imagine if he hadn't invaded Iran. He probably would manage to finagle a third term.

I don’t know about that. I remember when California Hispanics turned on Republicans after Prop 187 in the 1990s, and the realignment was permanent[1]. This could be the timeline where national Republicans lose Hispanics for good, destabilizing the knife-edge balance between the parties.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2019/11/08/777466912/californias-prop-18...

Trump is a lame duck now and in 15 days there's nothing more he can do for senators or representatives since they will all be sucking up to whoever is their next nominee for president.

Even among people I know who voted for him, Trump fatigue is setting in and growing. Iran, renaming lakes and oceans, high cost of food and gas, none of that is what they voted for.

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