I don't gamble, but if you really believe this, there's apparently some serious money to be made.
https://polymarket.com/event/anthropics-valuation-end-of-oct...
These have not really budged (yet) on this news.
https://polymarket.com/event/anthropics-valuation-end-of-oct...
These have not really budged (yet) on this news.
It's possible to be correct that the AI companies have no future, but not be able to time the exact month they collapse.
If by 'collapse' you really mean a 50%+ fall, timing is not going to make or break you by any means.
If Anthropic is going to crash 50% or more at some unknown time in the next two years, and you have foreknowledge of this, you can easily make a massive profit by placing a bet weekly. The odds are VERY long per week, so on each losing bet you only lose a tiny amount, but on your winning week you will more than make up for it.
Timing is, as a general rule, important. In the particular case we're discussing, the odds of a 50% swing are so low that you can tolerate being VERY wrong on the timing if you are correct on the swing.
idk, if "prediction markets" remain a real thing, there should probably be some requirement for previous experience in options-adjacent markets to ensure people actually understand the economics of time-valued positions.