And yet even including Chernobyl nuclear is far safer than oil and gas per kw
Nuclear is much scarier. Your argument fails to account for the extreme effort spent in order to keep it safe!
In the US, high explosives kill fewer people per year than painkillers. Despite this extraordinary statistic, we're not about to let anyone buy high explosives over the counter. Because we know that high explosives are in fact, much more dangerous than painkillers.
Same goes for nuclear. We have kept it safe(ish) so far, but we know what can happen if we don't.
Which I would still argue is far from making a "when" realistic. This entire comment chain started on the matter of cost. If someone has a reactor, the enemies won't try to explode. They will go Temüjin on it and seize it.