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Comment by xvxvx | Hacker News Reader

‘24% chance Anthropic announces bankruptcy by the end of next year.’

And we haven’t even got to the part where AI consumer pricing corrects to realistic models. Once that hits, companies will drop AI like a hot potato.

If anyone believed that they could replace humans with AI bots at a fraction of the cost, they’re about to have a major wake up call.

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Just a few years ago there was perhaps just as great a crisis in enterprise compute pricing. The end of "unlimited" storage accounts for enterprise customers. No one ran from gsuite and microsoft et al. They still kept paying for all the subscriptions to these sometimes redundant suites of services as they always did, only they now pay for additional storage solutions (in whatever shape those ended up manifesting as) as well.

> And we haven’t even got to the part where AI consumer pricing corrects to realistic models. Once that hits, companies will drop AI like a hot potato.

That ship has sailed. If you're a mid-sized company, with the resources of a mid-sized company, you'll always be able to download Deepseek's new Flash model and run it on your own hardware.

With all of the competition out there, prices arguably can't rise much further than they already have.

Well it's from a prediction market so could just as easily flip to like 5% a few minutes after a suitable story in the news breaks.

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