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Comment by lotsofpulp | Hacker News Reader

Energy consumption per person also has a lot of room to grow. For every barrel of oil eschewed by a relatively rich person in the developed world, there are probably 3 or 4 ready to pickup the slack and increase their quality of life in the rest of the much poorer world.

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This is like assuming people in africa need telephone lines strewn to every home in order to have telecommunications. The developing world doesn't need oil. It needs solar panels and ever cheaper batteries.

The growth of energy use is mostly in countries that are industrializing/developing. Places like India/Indonesia/Vietnam/... are where most energy will be added and they'll all add coal.

That would be dumb of them to add one of the most expensive forms of energy

Energy sources aren't perfect substitutes

I didn't know that. Maybe someone could invent a device to convert PV electrons into coal electrons.

No, it’s like assuming people in Africa want developed country luxuries like detached single family homes, individual cars, and flights.

And while telephone wires might not be needed, much more energy intensive infrastructure like water and sewer pipes and power lines are needed.

None of this requires fossil fuels and small rural villages in poor countries are never going to get electricity if they have to wait for large power plants and long distance transmission lines to be built. It makes far more sense for a village to have a solar farm, a battery bank and a small local grid.

I assume current technology requires significant fossil fuels to be used to manufacture and transport the type of batteries that can replace the heavy lifting that fossil fuels do.

We have electric cars and whatnot, but they're still far more expensive than fossil fuel cars with less bang for the buck in terms of power and portability. I doubt we will see cost effective construction vehicles, ships, planes, etc. powered via batteries anytime soon, at least not on a timescale that makes a material difference.

https://www.iea.org/world/energy-mix

22.9% natural gas + 30% oil + 27.6% coal = 80.5% of the world's energy coming from fossil fuels today.

Fossil fuels are still a very powerful, cost effective, and versatile battery compared to electric batteries.

The BYD Seagull costs $10,150. If there wasn't tarrifs on China EVs would be significantly cheaper. The cost of batteries has been decreasing exponentially just like the cost of solar. Electric tractor trailers are already on the road. Your pessimism about electric heavy machinery is misplaced.

From my perspective it's like you're looking at the market for telephones in 2004 and remarking that most phones are landlines and most portable phones are flip phones and therefore you don't see a future for smartphones.

Solar and wind are cheaper than any other form of electricity in history. (Often even when paired with a storage facility) The fact that it doesn't always shine or blow when needed is driving massive investment into storage technology. The world is changing rapidly. You're not paying attention.

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