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Comment by A_D_E_P_T | Hacker News Reader

> "By Kpler's count, the GCC states are now moving about 24 million barrels per day out of the region, including volumes transported by overland pipeline."

Complete BS article. I guess Kpler is the propaganda mouthpiece.

The article double-counts "Hormuz Shuttle" ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and misreads pipeline capacity.

An example: If 14 mb/d is moving through the Strait of Hormuz, getting to 24 mb/d requires 10 mb/d to move via overland bypass pipelines. In reality, the only two bypass pipelines out of the Gulf have a combined physical ceiling of ~6.5 to 8.5 mb/d. (And that's when they're fully operational, which may not be the case today!)

Many more obvious mistakes in this "analysis." It's totally bunk.

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Kpler is a commercial data broker, not a political institution; they have no incentive to lie to their customers. Where are you seeing the article double counting ship transfers? The article doesn't try to do any math, it just cites Kpler. If 8.5Mb is current pipeline capacity, is it possible there could be other overland shipments making up the remaining 1.5Mb?

In this Kpler blog post https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-how-mideast-gulf-crude-... they write "At least 16.5 mbd left the region in September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran." Maybe Maritime Executive did try to do some math to Kpler's figures instead of just quoting them.

Hmm, yeah maybe they tried to add pipeline exports to that figure without realizing the figure already included pipeline exports? Pretty boneheaded mistake if that's what happened.

Other possibility is that that Kplr article you linked is outdated; it doesn't have a date listed on it so it's hard to tell. The graphs do go up to September though so it can't be that outdated...

I don’t know you figure there’s double counting from that article: the shuttles to Fujairah are transiting the strait.

I’m also dubious about the gross figures but I do think it’s an interesting possibility (if they are correct then there’s an uncharacteristic overshoot in pricing, which seems suspicious). But ppl in the industry seem to take Kpler seriously — I just saw them at Gastech last month.

I can’t find the referenced report (it could be just a subscriber note) but here’s a blog entry on how they count: https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-the-nuances-of-reading-...

We need to move the global economy off fossil fuels and and an opex-driven fuel system in general. Fortunately that shift is finally well under way, except in the US.

It all makes sense when you realize Kpler's head of crude oil analysis is a hardcore Iranian monarchist.

Given the government in power wouldn’t that cause them to skew the reports the other way? Its kore in the Americans’ interest to make this supply claim.

Then again, a hard core monarchist of any stripe is unlikely to be a rational thinker.

The role of Kpler and the likes of The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) here is to encourage mounting pressure (and eventually yet another war) on Iran by claiming that things are working out in US's favor, so that the global economic pain does force Trump to change course.

Looking at the title and just hearing news from the strait and gas prices, it’s obvious they are not saying these barrels reached anywhere in the same amount.

It's interesting, something struck me as off about the analysis. I mean it could well be true but the price of oil and VLCC daily rates suggest it probably isn't.

There's a tonne of articles resharing this Kpler analysis. The closest to corroboration I could find was references to Marisks and Vortexa data.

This Russian site[0] quotes the following:

> Oil flows from Persian Gulf producers excluding Iran rebounded to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, averaging 19.2m barrels per day against about 23.6m bpd in the year before the regional conflict began on 28 February, according to Vortexa.

But assuming that analysis is paywalled I can't find it anywhere, and the article also relies on the Kpler analysis extensively.

Marisks is just about ship movements so doesn't really add anything to the picture. All that to say, it may well be true but the current story and way it is being propagated seem fishy.

[0]: https://en.portnews.ru/news/397951

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