It's not an appropriate equivalence because there's too much variation in the outcome that cannot be meaningfully controlled with the same leverage.
If what you were saying were true - there would be 100% not Software Developers anywhere, and Product Managers would be churning out new products daily. But it's not the case.
By now, is your Markov chain still a Markov chain, or does it have another name?
People love to discuss semantics. Yes, *today* a competent product manager enters requirements and - if not too complex - the llm will shit, review, debug, fix an application. That is the reality today. Not in 2031.
Only developers think that in most cases, the hard part is code. Its never been.
The correct way to think about this:
The hard part is ensuring the product does not exhibit undesired behaviours. Writing code is one possible tool for ensuring this. Replacing writing code with LLMs only works to the extent that LLMs accurately predict your definition of 'undesired'. The more unique and innovative your product, the more likely the LLM prediction is to be inaccurate.
They suck at spelling too ;)
The hard part is knowing what behaviours you want it to have, in the context of what is possible and what is not.