Comment by somenameforme | Hacker News Reader

Comment by somenameforme | Hacker News Reader

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I notice you refused to answer the question I asked. I won't pick on you beyond that observation. Though one fact I would hit on - yes, Russia does have many millions of more soldiers available. Russia has not even declared a general mobilization. Ukrainian estimates put their potential there at 20 million soldiers, 5 million already with military training. [1] That's a very conservative estimate, given that Russia has 143 million people and compulsory military training, but even if we roll with that estimate, it justifies my claim.

This is why Ukrainian propaganda always insists that Russia is on the verge of a general mobilization. This is a war that's not going well for Ukraine fighting with nearly all their forces, while fighting against an enemy fighting with a very small fraction of their potential forces. This is also why Ukraine is targeting oil. It has little chance of shifting the status of the war, at least not in the foreseeable future, and is damaging Ukraine's relation with the US. It's being done simply in an effort to try to change the nature of the conflict, regardless of the cost or efficacy. These types of actions are a frequent visitor in the latter stages of conflicts.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces#Russo-Ukr...

The question you asked (Positing UKR taking parts of RU, etc.) *inherently presumes* the counterfactual of Ukraine being an aggressive, expansionist dictatorship. Ukraine is zero of those things, and the question is irrelevant. But IF the actual UKR had taken significant RU territory, and was offered a peace deal allowing them their full sovereignty and territorial integrity, they would immediately take the deal.

Your mobilization numbers are fantasy, and Putin has held off declaring mobilization not because he thinks he does not need to but because it would require drafting people from the middle classes near Moscow instead of the rural impoverished territories that can be ignored politically. A full mobilization could end him. If he had enough people, he would not be getting soldiers from North Korea and deceiving Africans to put into their meat grinder

Yes, Ukraine has a manpower problems also. They are solving it through innovation. And it is working. Just look at the verified death counts from both sides

You really are a persistent apologist for Putin, not some kind of middle ground arbitor you hold yourself out as.

Shall I simply quote the propaganda patterns? "10. Whoever casts doubt on our propaganda helps the enemy and is a traitor." It's silly. And I think you're obviously not answering in good faith. Militaries who have the advantage in a conflict do not accept peace without significant concession. There's even a precedent for my hypothetical in this war. Early on in the conflict Ukraine was doing quite well, and it was Russia looking for a ceasefire, overtly to rearm and reman.

And at that time it was Ukraine rejecting any calls for a ceasefire without major concessions from Russia. They wanted the immediate and unconditional return of all land as a precondition to even beginning to negotiate, where they would have sought further concessions like reparations to agree to peace. And beyond that they were making statements, in public - let alone private, such as "[Russia] must be defeated, be subjected to a painful defeat, as painful as possible." [1] These are not the words or actions of a country that'd just agree to peace, without major concessions, if they were trending towards a potential absolute victory. But of course no country would. It's the nature of war. The side with an edge will expect significant concessions to end a conflict.

And, obviously a general mobilization would cause major backlash within Russia, but they'd almost certainly be just fine. They're not mobilizing because they don't need to. There's also no such thing as a "verified death count." Again going back to our propaganda list: "7. We suffer few losses, the enemy's losses are considerable." On top of both sides actively lying, they also likely don't even really know themselves, especially Ukraine. The overwhelming majority of their military is made up of forcibly conscripted people, many of whom would flee at the first opportunity. They certainly know the dogtagged KIA, but likely simply have no idea exactly how many of the missing are fertilizer, and how many managed to make their way to freedom. They also have a motivation to not know, to defer the KIA compensation payments.

[1] - https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/22/us-ukraine-crisis-podoly...

  >  Ukrainian estimates put their potential there at 20 million soldiers

That is the theoretical maximum potential if you conscript absolutely everyone, every single male, in eg 20-45 age range: https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2026/ By that measure, Ukraine has millions of soldiers available, too.

That is pratical only in the event of total societal breakdown like Nazi Germany in its final months when there was no economy left and institutions like schools, hospitals, factories and utilities had ceased to work. Everything was thrown to the front while the people in cities were malnourished, had no power nor running water, and died of minor diseases due to lack of medical supplies.

Putin is too afraid to even announce a regular mobilization and resorts to dirty tactics coercion of poor rural ethnic minorities to fill the ranks, because the backlash that would follow a general mobilization would be a major threat to Putin's grip on power. Look up the effect of soldiers' mothers movement during the Chechen wars, or how the forced conscription into the Soviet-Afghan war (620k people over a decade) contributed to the disintegration of the USSR. Educated middle-class people accustomed to European lifestyle won't go to the front to get slaughtered like IQ 80 villagers who are up to their necks in payday loans; they will resist and cause major disruption among the productive urban population that keeps the country running.

These millions of soldiers exist only on paper. The actual situation on the ground is pretty dire. Ukraine hit another all-time record yesterday, killing or disabling 2250 Russians in a single day. The entire month of October is trending to hit a record too, 50k casualties in a single month. Russian recruitment target is 34k per month.

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