AI price-performance is improving rapidly. AI usage, whether in tokens used, in cash spent, or any of the above performance-adjusted, is curving upwards too.

Causality is uncertain, but the "Jevons paradox" interpretation is certainly not contradicted by the available data. Anecdotes of per-employee AI spend rising, and multi-agent freerunning AI tasks becoming more common are also plentiful.

Personally, I think that the "Jevons paradox" interpretation is basically correct. Humanity doesn't have a limited demand on intelligence - but humans are expensive, so it's supply-constrained. The cheaper intelligence gets, the more of it ends up used. As AI gets cheaper and more capable of substituting for human intelligence, usage will rise.

Unknown. AI usage went up exponentially this year but a lot of that was driven by access to frontier and near-frontier models and a shift to agents. Does that constitute a decrease in prices because $ per unit of intelligence (whatever that could mean) has gone down? Maybe.

One issue is that token usage and revenue seem to be decoupling in real time. For Jevons paradox to be true, prices need to be going down but total spend on AI has to be going up. That's technically true right now but total usage is going way up while total spend is going up slightly. Another problem is that we may be witnessing the end of "tokenmaxxing" with Anthropic's revenue growth decelerating and OpenRouter's token volume plateauing. Two points of data do not make evidence but the possibility that AI usage is an S curve rather than exponential is live.

It isn't actually Jevon's Paradox, but nearly all products behave that way (law of demand). There are exceptions of course, but it would be surprising for it not to apply here imo.