But what’s a reasonable win rate? 50%? Then you need 200 bets that could realistically capture $20B each (probably more to cover your losses).

$20B is a massively successful company.

And who’s managing the strategy behind a company that’s competing in hundreds of diversified verticals?

At that point, just take a % of an industry leader in exchange for giving them your frontier AI capabilities, some compute and maybe a little AI-native training/expertise.

Or just pick 10-20 $200B opportunities to go after.

You don’t get rewarded for firm specific risk. The marginal investor is well diversified already.

Please learn about finance.