I think it’s very likely many, many people will be out of a job in 10 or so years.
I have no confidence anything will exist (UBI) to help those people survive.
I have no confidence anything will exist (UBI) to help those people survive.
No, not really. Or maybe a better way to put it is actually yes, but it looks like this
https://borgenproject.org/10-worst-slums-in-the-world/
Just remember there is only one economy, black markets and 'sub' economies are still part of it. If AI is that much better than humans at earning it will buy up almost everything eventually. Fields for farms, too unprofitable, pave them with solar panels. Your slum built on a copper deposit, send in 'peacekeeper' drones to solve the problem.
Just look at what companies like Chevron do in African countries and you'll see just how bad it can get here.
Nice to see someone update their worldview on new information. Doesn't happen often.
I hope the policy measures Anthropic and OpenAI recommend in their research will be implemented in order to disperse the productivity gains enabled by AI widely, like they say.
I'm an optimist, but honestly, I think the dystopian future many pessimists expect is unlikely.
What would be the point for a few rich to concentrate even more wealth? Even if they were so selfish, surely it's worth spending some 20-30% on public benefits to prevent unrest, no?
(Robots. Social unrest can be solved with robots.)
This is the next iteration of: but without consumers those billionaires have no one to sell stuff to. So surely this will work out.
My point stands, it seems much preferable to spend 20-30% on public benefits rather than some dystopian suppression of the public via robot armies.
You don't get to call me indifferent for not sharing your extreme pessimism.
Presumably the same reason they concentrated the current amount in the first place?
I mean, I get being optimistic and all that, but we are talking about people who, once they got enough to live in opulent luxury, for long enough that their descedents would never need to work while still owning yachts, said to themselves "This is not enough, I must get more". And then, when they actuall got more, said "This is not enough, I must get more"... and they haven't stopped trying to get more!
So, what is your belief centered on, that at some point they would stop trying to grab all the resources they can? They didn't stop before, why would they stop now?
Like, are eg. Musk and Zuckerberg doing this for bragging rights about a number on financial statements?
To be honest I have no idea about Zuckerberg's motivations. With the proposed billionaire tax in California, recent reporting indicates his main concern is retaining voting rights at Meta.
With Musk I believe he is investing into space flight and colonizing Mars.
I fundamentally don't agree with the idea that rich people are evil and motivated by nothing other than greed.
I wasn't addressing their motivations for attempting to grab all the wealth in the world. I am pointing out that that is what they do, so why would you expect them to stop at some point when they never stopped at any point in the past?
I guess I am asking, why are you expecting their behaviour to change?
Do they need to donate their shares in order not to be considered hoarding wealth?
No, they're doing this for the power that the number can give them. After we create a system that rewards the people who maximize their wealth at any cost, we shouldn't be surprised that eventually we get a group of people concentrated at the top whose lives revolve around doing that one thing. We also shouldn't expect there to be some arbitrary amount of wealth and power that trips the failsafe in their brains and reverts them to the state of mind of an average human being. They will keep going, the goal is owning as much of the world as is feasible. Power is an intrinsic motivator. Most billionaires only sit on their hands and watch their number go up, so for those it's immediately apparent. For the exceptions, like Musk, it's a bit more complicated, but the desire to advance human spaceflight likely comes in far behind the desire to out-do everyone else, get your name in history and own a brand new unexplored frontier under your own name.
If that was the goal, surely one would need to run for president.
I don't think the brains of billionaires work so differently from us all. Who doesn't want his name in history for their achievements?
I know that I wouldn't want a dystopian future, and I think it is the same for most billionaires. I find arguments that they are all evil rather unconvincing.