I don't think Google is doing this out of some egotistical obsession over "control," it's more that developers and FOSS enthusiasts are a vanishingly small fraction of their customer base.
There are plenty of problems with walled gardens, but IMO this isn't one of them.
Maybe it's because direct installs are too hard to do already? Fortnite tried to go to that route and failed, if Fortnite couldn't make it who can?
And let's be real, I'm not going to accept any talk of "security" from Google when I type "chatgpt" in the search bar of the play store and I have an app with a counterfeit logo coming up at the top spot.
We'd all be safest in a cage but no one wants to live like that
So sanctioning Google means taking the smartphone away from 95% of their population. Which isn't going to happen.
Google is doing this because Google wants to.
It's also that that fraction is one they don't get any income from. We don't use Google accounts, Google apps or services etc.
So they don't get to track us as much except the few things you can't turn off in play services. Not everyone can work with custom rom (on those the new restriction obviously doesn't apply at all)