I think of it a little differently. LLMs are clearly poised to have a major impact. And Anthropic and OpenAI are at the forefront of that innovation. But if you look at other technologies that have have huge impacts (trains, semiconductors, you name it) the companies that start off in the lead are rarely the dominant players 20 years later.

Today, Nvidia is bigger than Shockley Semiconductor (founded 1955) and Rivian is bigger than Studebaker (founded 1852). Being first doesn't mean you'll stick around.