The law isn’t self servicing. What the Constitution says only matters if it is actually enforced, and whether anyone is willing and able to do that is very much unclear.
The only factor the Constitution plays is that the people around him have more or less decided to try to follow what the Constitution says. If they decide to not to that, well, then what the Constitution says doesn't matter.
If you want to nitpick, the claim that Trump was elected President in 2020 is the opposite of what the 22nd Amendment would require for a third term. Better to argue that the 2016 election was illegitimate and therefore no one was elected President during Trump's first term, which if true would allow him to be elected a second time in 2028 without violating the letter of the 22nd Amendment.
What the Constitution says matters. Enforcement just might have a blood price.