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The problem with this argument is that people have been saying "it just recently got good" for about two years now.

Have they? AI agents only really got usable around last fall. LLMs were pretty useful starting basically at the beginning of 2025, but not in the fully autonomous way that they are now.

Yes, and each iteration of your comment picks a different date and a different 'killer feature' that 'made them usable'

Perhaps it is different dates for different people then

I keep hearing this. People being premature before does not mean they are premature now.

How long have people been warning about global warming? Do you still think it isn't real?

> People being premature before does not mean they are premature now.

It does not. But it does mean they are bad at predictions and you shouldn't give their latest prediction much credence.

I disagree. I was totally on the "vibe coding doesn't work and it's stupid" side a few months ago, when that was definitely true... So technically I was right, but I would say the "coding is solved!" people were more usefully right even if they were 6 months early. That's really not very early and it gave them a head start in preparing for today's reality.

Six months before the start of WW2 would your rather be "we're not at war, don't panic" or "peace is over, stockpile food"?

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