Well that sucks then: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election
80% chance Bolsonaro wins.
80% chance Bolsonaro wins.
As of writing, 0.2% of districts have been counted with Lula leading.
Bolsonaro 52.26%
Lula 47.74%
If you have a high enough degree of certainty somebody could have a 99% chance of winning with an expected 50.1%/49.9% split. For the split to mean anything you need to know the confidence/variance.
I would guess they encountered it via a vaguely classical adjacent education or reading background, in that a (non geodesy / survey related) datum is a singular thing given, granted, assumed as fact, used in a reasoning chain.
More simply, the singular of data.
S'all Latin to me.
Polymarket: Hold my beer.