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Comment by analog31 | Hacker News Reader

I'm also a physicist. But I think the next 5 years are going to be a rough ride for math. I'm struck by the following observation, mainly from following HN links to Terrence Tao's blogs.

Novel proofs are the coin of the realm for junior mathematicians. They figure into training, career advancement, and indirectly, teaching. The reason I include teaching is because it requires tenure, which requires proofs. Teaching without tenure is gig work, not a career. But proofs can be devalued to zero.

The application deadline for grad school is a few months away. For a student considering a math career, they have to deliver a thesis in a few years, that their professor is willing to sign. Nobody knows what that will look like without proofs. "We will have to do something different" is weak sauce.

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I’m also a physicist, and I do worry about physics. I’ve already had a few successful sessions with Claude and Astra where they came up with useful ideas in my field. I still know what to ask for and nudge them where it matters, but I fear it’s going to be a few short months before they can decide that too, unassisted.

I'm still better at soldering, and machining. ;-)

for now

Indeed, and they're already better in a sense. I would never try to compete with the robots at basic manufacturing such as CNC machining and automated circuit assembly.

But for stuff that needs really quick turn-around, as a prototype or experiment evolves, I can take care of custom tasks and repairs in minutes that would otherwise take days. And it doesn't take many of those kinds of delays to utterly cripple a project.

However, I'm under no illusions, and have a "never say never" mindset. I don't claim to have a "safe" job. I'm already using AI heavily myself. The computer that's next to each lab bench is running the latest coding agents or whatever you call them. I'm not as deep into it as the coders are, but I'm not all that far behind. My token burn is respectable. ;-)

I'm curious about your perspective on the impact of LLMs on physics.

My impression is that (theoretical?) physics is increasingly becoming a branch of abstract math. It has somewhat reached a practical limit for experimental verification -- perhaps the last landmark result was the confirmation of the Higgs boson 15 years ago?

So I see no reason LLMs cannot crank out a lot of theoretical physics papers, maybe combining forgotten/obscure theoretical branches explored in the past. After all, the most advanced theoretical physics is about internal consistency just as pure math is.

You are talking about high energy physics. In high energy maybe AI can help analyze accelerator data and physicists are probably already using it for that. There is theory all over the place, including condensed matter, a branch related to quantum physics of many problems and includes some hard problems like high tc super conductivity. Many (most?) theorists that manage to get interesting publications have early access to experimental results and can help direct experiments. AI maybe not have much to say about the occasional experiment that showed some unexpected result. Also in general in physics the objective is rarely to solve a mathematical problem exactly, it mostly finding the right model and right approximation and compared to math it is a bit like fuzzy logic. I am not sure if the process has been codified to the extent that AI can pick it up from its training set, but we never know.

Gravitational wave detection was another big banner experimental result, about ten years ago now https://news.mit.edu/2016/ligo-first-detection-gravitational...

Much of the low-hanging fruit has been picked but there's still interesting experimental work happening. Just in the past few weeks LZ reported an [unconfirmed] detection of dark matter https://www.newswise.com/articles/lz-experiment-sees-surpris...

It's a great question. AI guided results of theoretical calculations are already a given (e.g., see https://www.anthropic.com/research/vibe-physics). Right now, I use LLM's as a book-smart colleague, who can explain standard things that I might be weak or unclear about (I am an experimental condensed matter person, so my high-energy and general relativity knowledge isn't very deep.)

I do sort of worry that an experimentalist like me will become more or less a technician in the next decade or so, with AI suggesting experiments, and doing the calculations and data analysis.

But that said, in physics (and particularly biophysics) there are many things that are simply going to have to be done in the real world. Even the action of the simplest enzymes are pretty much beyond our ability to compute from first principles; and any engineered thing that goes into a living system has to be tested, as there are many pathways that are just unknown. I don't care how "smart" an LLM is, it doesn't know what it doesn't know, just like us monkeys.

Over the years I have seen many beautiful theories murdered by ugly experimental facts. AI isn't going to change this.

The real question is if the AI or humans run the experiments.

So much of science experiments these days are pulling signals of statistical significance out of experimentation noise. Repeating simplified versions of some of these experiments is easy to do. Correlating data from experiments is something computers have done for decades, having an overarching 'smart' computer to do this even faster just seems like a natural progression.

Yep, automation has made a lot of high SNR experiments possible. But someone still has to construct the experiment in the physical world and take the data. When I start seeing robots plugging BNC cables around tricky corners, and then wrapping tin-foil around things to suppress some damned ground loop, I will know the jig is up. But I think we are a long way from that being economical (a general purpose 100 Watt monkey that self-reproduces is going to still be competitive for a long time to come, at least for one-off type activities...)

I work in industry, developing scientific measurement equipment. So I'm right in the thick of things.

There are still plenty of problems in theoretical physics that are not quantum gravity. A better understanding of superconductors would be welcome right now. Likewise, nuclear fusion. Many interdisciplinary problems such as climate science and batteries.

But in terms of sheer numbers, the life sciences dwarf physics, and have been racing to automate lab work for decades. There's real money involved, not puny government grants. Larger commercial bio labs have already centralized management of technicians and data. The vendors of products in that space have all announced AI features.

In terms of my own career (at age 62), the most likely scenario is that people pay me to invent tools that make other people more productive. There's no economic reason to come after my job... yet.

Meanwhile, don't overlook the value of a "technician" who has a situational awareness of subtle conditions in the lab, and a personal stake in success of the experiment.

> Teaching without tenure is gig work, not a career.

Teaching without tenure is... teaching. Secondary school teachers don't have tenure. I find it hard to describe secondary school teaching as gig work.

True, but secondary school teaching requires additional training, so it's not an option for most students thinking about applying for graduate programs. And it's a very high-attrition occupation.

Secondary school teachers usually have better employment terms.

Many public school teachers in the USA have some sort of tenure. For example, in Massachusetts, after a three year probationary period, a teacher is given Professional Teacher Status. A teacher with PTS may be dismissed only for specified statutory reasons. High school tenure is generally not as strong as for colleges, but is easier to get.

The teacher union means no teacher gets fired for performance. My wife worked in public education as a teacher for 20 years.

Anecdotally, I had an adjunct teaching gig at a state university many years ago while I was in between jobs. My mom is a retired public school math and science teacher, and was on her district's union negotiating team. I described my gig to her, and her response was: "Now you know why teachers have a union."

They aren't programming robots. A lot of students, especially the ones who have not been taught from an early age the importance and rewards of knowledge, simply aren't interested in learning.

My state (Kentucky) does provide for "tenure" for primary/secondary teachers. In Kentucky, that is called a "continuing contract". KRS 161.720(4):

https://apps.legislature.ky.gov/law/KRS/161/720

Do you mean without proofs as a what assigns value to the thesis? I think AI doesn't make them optional at all.

Without novel proofs. If AI can churn out proofs, then anybody's work can get "scooped." I've seen this happen to students in other fields, where it has reached the point that students refrain from giving conference talks in order to avoid revealing their research topic.

My thesis project, 30+ years ago, was protected by a unique assemblage of expensive equipment, some of it purpose-built. The people who wanted my result were perfectly happy to wait for me to finish it. I even shared my shop drawings, circuit diagrams, and source code with them as I progressed.

I think at the very least students need to know what to expect. Maybe it will settle down and we'll be OK.

Id like to help. I have something, i think, could interest you. Might have to think a bit outsude the box a different way but its part of the complex dodecagram, Einstein Nikola tesla, (skcolc cimsoc)

    We will have to do something different" is weak sauce.

I'm not sure I understand. We don't have to like it for it to be true.

It's not like the modern system for university tenure track is some fundamental human right.

Pythagoras did mathematics one way, Newton another, and the kids in 2050 another.

The wheel turns, and we all got to turn with it.

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