The demand for shovels in a gold rush is high, but, once we realize the amount of gold available isn't that much, the demand for shovels at any price falls off a cliff?
And the point I'm making, is that shovels are sold at min. 5x markup, and the shovel company (Nvidia and others) has no interest in seeing the market collapse, and is willing to use its generous profits to prop it up.
Compute is the shovel.
You use the shovel (GPUs) to dig for the gold (work AI can do). However, the AI can't do as much as was hoped, so the demand for GPUs dries up.
Your argument suggests that there's a hard cap on AI demand (AI can't do as much as hoped), but currently compute demand far outstrips supply, it's just companies can't pay for it - it's a cashflow problem.