Now ask yourself what it takes to generate 500bn…
You people are nuts. The failure risk is off the charts.
You people are nuts. The failure risk is off the charts.
Anthropic needs to earn 52B a year in annual revenue to honor those specific commitments plus obviously its own operating expenses... and yeah that will require Anthropic to grow as a company, but their S-1 indicates 67.2B a year in revenue and sure maybe they stop growing and this is their peak... or maybe they do manage to grow further to 80B a year, 90B a year...
But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI
Businesses are extracting value now - for the average user I see it as a convenience that they will pick the cheapest provider for..
It's a race to the bottom for most as there's not a major differentiator.
Anthropic is selling $3 for $1, of course the growth is fast.
Besides the question is not only if someone used AI but also for what and how much.
But look at this map: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-ai-adoption-by-count...
I'm not convinced.
[0] https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/two-custome...
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ai-copycats-distil...
But I do assume its not just adoption in the future its replacement and re-investment:
Right now a company can't invest in anything else than humans. A team has 5-10 members, the 5-20% of them are below avg or just avg. you were happy to have them for whatever reason like smaller tasks, easier tasks more repetitive tasks.
Now you can just replace them with AI Tokens.
The second driver of this, or why this will/is happening not just for something like a developer through coding agents: the agentic layer is coming. Which will eat tokens for breakfast, but will also replace humans.
Your HR system? Will have an Agentic layer by default. Your HR system will either respond automatically to you or with A2A to the ticket system. The ticket system will have an agentic layer. Your SEO tool? you will us the agentic layer to create camapaigns automatically. You migth give feedback but you will need less people and less skilled people if even.
And this will happen on every layer of your stack.
Assuming you're talking about the $600 billion or so over the next decade, they don't need a 6x increase to cover that, they're already pretty close based on the $65B run rate as of last quarter.
their revenue is super concentrated in just a few customers
20% for the top two customers is not actually that concentrated. If both of them go to zero, at their current growth rate (45% from Q2 to Q3) it would take about 6 weeks to replace that revenue.
With tx to an LLM, this layer will close the gap to full or borderline full automatisation.
Your Ticketsystem will have agent support out of the box. Your incident system too. Your UI for SEO, SEO optimization, article creation etc. every single on of them wijll be there and consume tokens.
Future invesment from 10 people in your l1 support might be 5 + token budget. Your SEO optimizer collegues? 1 Person + token budget instead of a team.
Business doesn't think that deterministic to begin with. If customer support is faster and KPIs are fine, they will not care if customers get non deterministic customer support.
And lets be fair: just because you hired someone doing SEO, doesn't give ou ANY understanding how good of a job they do.
You will need to prove in the future that you can do it better than the agent. You will win at the beginning and fail later. The KPIs will show it and that person will get replaced.