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Comment by smath | Hacker News Reader

If they grow to 20T then buying the index will also be a good investment but with a good risk hedge.

Isn't it likely that inference providers like Anthropic continue to capture more and more of the share of labor as revenue? Everything up makes sense for a year or two as we automate more and more labor, but at some point unemployment will drag the whole market down. It's difficult to see it working out any other way, unless we come up with something like a token tax.

> Isn't it likely that inference providers like Anthropic continue to capture more and more of the share of labor as revenue?

Not if open weight models turn inference into a commodity that's sold at cost.

They will capture share of labour as the labour works today.

There will be, as is always the case, some amount of new labour skills that emerge and I can't say for sure what percentage or amount that might be.

Looking at tech work being increasingly well the last 20-30y, we can imagine new ways of working might be pretty valued.

It always has been the case that some new labor skills emerge, but that only has to be wrong once. And given that how it's always worked is that the new skills used brainpower to make centaurs of people, to use Cory Doctorow's term, that might not happen this time.

That's a fair way to think about it.

Most technologies seemed doom and gloom, and also have absorbed existing jobs for new ones, and current LLMs as AI is a bigger sponge than usual.

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