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Comment by alberth | Hacker News Reader

Valuations are a function of growth rate.

Anthropic growth rate is truly unprecedented at it's scale.

They are 10x revenue YoY.

  2024:   ~$0.4B
  2025:   ~$4.0B
  2026: ~$100.0B

Note: I'm not justifying it, just explaining how the markets are rationalizing it.

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If I was selling dollars for 50c and Nvidia, alphabet and Amazon giving me dollars for a piece of my company, my revenue growth would be the same. That’s what Anthropic is doing.

That's no longer the case though anymore according to the S-1.

  2025: $0.50 revenue per $1.00 of compute
  2026: $1.82 revenue per $1.00 of compute

lol yeah if you completely discount the actual amount they paid for that compute which is hidden in the 70Bn of debt which is waved away as a non operating loss, sure.

That's per inference compute right? Or does it also include training compute?

It’s per unit of bullshit. No one knows what the true cost of Anthropic’s compute is because of circular financing.

Stop posting nonsense ok?

Valutions are a function of cash flows, growth of those cash flows and risk. Don’t forget to discount properly on your way out.

They did not post "valuations", so your hostile comment seems weird and misplaced.

Hackernews commenters generally dont care about the Anthropic's financials because they have unassailable grievances.

At $2T Anthropic would need to look roughly like Alphabet today by 2030 for investors to earn a normal market return (20-25X earnings). That or similar baselines should be the basis of discussion, not if AI is overhyped, if it will grow faster than Amazon did, oligarchy(?), etc.

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