>Things look about as good as they ever will.
That kind of assumes things are static and Anthropic won't get a first mover advantage in some new area. If you look at the recent progress in maths it seems unlikely AI has plateaued.
That kind of assumes things are static and Anthropic won't get a first mover advantage in some new area. If you look at the recent progress in maths it seems unlikely AI has plateaued.
With the token budget sticker shock and end of the honeymoon phase, just a guess, but I expect a significant market share might start to look at open weight "not quite frontier" models and outsource compute alone and have greater control over the model rather than outsource everything. Which will also be a trend that peaks and folds as it's discovered it takes a lot of human work to get what you need. Maybe then settling into a pretty standard tier of medium-quality contractors that specialize in LLMAAS for cheap, running open weight models.
Which isn't to say that AI has plateaued, but rather that budget-friendly, functional options might undermine the importance of frontier models sooner rather than later.