Summary of Tonight's Exit Polls – Netanyahu doesn't have a majority | Hacker News Reader

Summary of Tonight's Exit Polls – Netanyahu doesn't have a majority

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14 pointsspzx12 comments

The Guardian's liveblog: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/oct/27/israel-el...

I wish they'd list which parties they're considering part of each bloc and the sub totals.

This was always going to be a bunch of politiking at this point to get some party to switch sides by giving them a ministership that the size of their party wouldn't normally justify.

Also, Chan14 is really silly to say 60 MKs, given that you need 61 and it's so far out from everyone else's data. It's as big of a number as they can say without having too much egg on their face later.

This account (@israel_elects) posted all individual exit polls before the summary, so you can look them up on their timeline.

Jeeze, if it ends up being these https://x.com/israel_elects/status/2115191017066377366 I expect no one can make a government, and we have a new election. The opposition's only real pathway is through adding the Joint List to their coalition (which is the coalition of chiller Arab parties after Ra'am (the Islamist party) left). But that's not really going to happen. And on the opposite side, Yisrael Beteinu was obviously hoping to be the one to switch sides, but they don't have the numbers, basically only The Democrats do (but there's no way they'll switch).

At this point my fictional money is on there's a new election in a few months, it doesn't have the same influx of diaspora helping the opposition since they already just spent thousands flying in and back, and Netanyahu wins again.

https://xxcancel.com/israel_elects/status/211519101706637736...

I don't know anything about Israel politics and who pollsters are affiliated to, but either that Fiber pollster is a genius or it picked a very biased sample.

Chan14 is basically the OAN of Israel.

Can update from personal experience that the polls were busier than I've ever seen, which made me happy despite the long wait.

I hope there won't be a reelection as it won't get that much of a momentum.

One can use this to get the bloc breakdown (Hebrew): https://www.kan.org.il/lobby/skarim/

For the rest of the world, it doesn't really matter. Both candidates have identical platforms. In fact the guy running against Netanyahu invented the Dahiya doctrine (mass slaughter of civilians as a policy):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahiya_doctrine

How reliable are Israeli exit polls generally?

They're normally really good, but this is a wild election. Tons of people flying in (you can't vote absentee in most cases in Israel (except settlers in the occupied territories)), and record Arab Israeli turnout mean that a lot of the models that they would use to remove sampling bias aren't that accurate.

https://x.com/israel_elects/status/2115168648520519891

https://xxcancel.com/israel_elects/status/211516864852051989...

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