I get what they're trying to say, but it still seems a bit unconventional to have a line chart where the y-axis is a share percentage.
Here's a graph with revenue in dollars by segment:
Here's a graph with revenue in dollars by segment:
Second, is the geometric growth of Cloud cannibalizing their search teams, leading to less effort being put into sales. And so it’s not so much that demand is tapering off as that supply is being constrained as an opportunity cost. That $1m in salary nets more profit from Cloud than from Search.
Yes, to an extent. There were three unfavorable circumstances other than AI eating into search: FX (major), the World Cup timing, end of de minimis exemption in EU.
If for instance you enshittify a tool brand, first the supply chain needs to drain of old inventory and then customers need to be confronted with the new product before they react, and that may take several interactions.
Ok this case that doesn’t describe people using search but does describe a monthly or quarterly ad spend. Once the feature factory shuts down it takes a bit to notice the new trend.
If I type in the name of a company so that I can navigate to their website, and I have to scroll past my whole viewport of other companies bidding to be placed above where I'm trying to go, I learn it's faster for me to just type the website address into the bar instead of going via Google.
They designed a UX that made my life easier and caused me to form a habit, and then broke that UX for money causing me to form a new habit.
It's just one example of dozens, but the consequence is that I see 95% fewer Google ads than I used to. My guess I am on the leading edge (along with many others on this forum) of a wave of change of user behavior that spells pessimism for Google search revenue.
E.g. how Amazon knows they have a problem with counterfeits and low-quality copies that damages their brand, but chose volume over quality
Neither company will ever explicitly put it in those terms, but it seems obvious Google isn't looking at search as a growth engine anymore.
Amazon kind of does say it but they were clever about it. They don’t let rhetoric win only raw numbers. That means they will always shill or scam for profit. Has been that way for decades but only now are people paying attention.
It pretty much always was, assuming you type reasonably well anyway. Especially once browsers just started guessing at what you want by automatically adding "https://" and ".com" to whatever you type into an address bar and trying that before redirecting you to a search engine.
The real trick is that they're pretty much the only relevant ads on the entire internet. That and they pretty much force companies into paying so that people that search specifically for that company actually see that company as the first result.
https://www.pasteboard.co/yCGoS8kxEy7Y.png
Google Cloud clearly on positive acceleration for revenue share.
Would give a better sense of left-to-right momentum over time when the entire pie is growing.
Why does it even need to keep going up anyway? Is 60 billion not enough?
If you don’t show growth every year, then your stock tanks because you can’t show them the profit that they would make through buying your stock today and then selling it next year.
At least, that’s the way they normally think.
Wall Street generally cares about the former more, unless the single-product is only-product.
In this case, that's the fundamental question about Google: is it only an ad company (in which case those numbers are the only ones that matter) or more (in which case total corporate revenue is more important)?
Everything else is an also-ran, and doesn’t materially affect anything, unless it costs a huge amount and doesn’t provide a suitable ROI. And here, AI and mega data centers would definitely be a problem — way too much capex, not nearly enough ROI.
[1]: As the page says,
- "Search" means "ads on Google Search and on other Google properties such as Gmail, Maps and Google Play"
- "Everything else" means "YouTube ads, subscriptions and devices, Google Network and Other Bets".
At Whole Foods eStore, during the time I worked there, virtually all of their profit came from Thanksgiving. Not before, not after. Just that one week. Christmas was also something of a bump, but the rest of the year operated at a loss.
(Love the cheeky exponential right past the end of data at the end of a straight line.
Forecasting 501: forecasts say the boss is smart)
I'm surprised GCP rev is growing so fast. Anecdotally, most devs I know still prefer AWS.
Everything else is “call for pricing” for all but the simplest use cases.