this is more about the supply and demand of capital in any given moment than it is about the outlook of the company.
as a litmus test: would you turn down the opportunity to buy OpenAI shares at this current valuation?
as a litmus test: would you turn down the opportunity to buy OpenAI shares at this current valuation?
There’s so much money that has been poured into this, with absolutely no revenue to justify it. Trillions of investments generating billions of losses.
Now they’re looking for retail and retirement funds to pay off the debt.
This is not to say that no one will make a profit; I’m sure some people are _very_ happy.
It seems obvious to me that we will get superintelligence in the next 5 years, and that is a winner take all race. Who knows to whatever extent money will matter after this.
The mistake is assuming that science is linear. You could give me a trillion dollars, there’s still no guarantee I’ll invent cold fusion. You can’t predict or guarantee inventions.
I don’t believe in betting on single companies but I’d be more inclined to bet on Amazon and Google. Most AI deployments go through bedrock, and Google has their own cloud business and other businesses to make money. That means they can win regardless of who develops the next cool model.
1.25T? Yes.
Open models exist, and are extremely capable. OpenAI will never achieve a decent ROI when that is true.
If either of AI companies "solves software" (does not look improbable rn) ahead of all others, that would defend ~3T valuation right away.
And that's just software.
2) Even if does, Chinese open models are very close in capabilities.