Shorting is more dangerous than buying long dated puts. At least with puts, if it's volatile there'll be opportunities to sell out of it if the direction isn't down in the long term.

It's so hard to time these things that short term bets are insanely risky. Yeah, thinks should go down, but they might or might not do it soon, and it might happen overnight because somethingsomething Yen Carry Trade or a surprise in the Middle East or some LatAm crash or an election result or God knows what.