I don't think Mythos is even close to what is available privately. If you can touch it as a consumer it's been heavily nerfed / censored and isn't using nearly as much compute as an actual SOTA model. But it'll reach the benchmark of improving itself (it's already building improved chips for itself - crafting its own brain) and people will change the goalposts again.

It really feels like a lack of imagination to think that this technology that surprises even the researchers working on it all the time will just stop improving in the fashion skeptics keep saying it will. I've been hearing it's "hit a wall" on every update since GPT 3.5 and the rate of improvement just keeps accelerating. Every single time someone says it'll never be able to do X (math was the big one I heard a lot - how can a language model do math?) it tends to do X not only well but better than us in time.

Sophistry goes both ways. My guess is if you're a skeptic and you're able to go back and see your thoughts from 2022 they were much different arguments than what they are now. Arguing that LLMs aren't going to be more intelligent than humans because of what they can do now could be like arguing the industrial revolution will stop at the steam engine. How can we possibly know either way?

My personal bet comes from the rate of change I'm seeing and how it's making many of my friends (even the high paid ones, in fact especially the high paid ones) obsolete overnight.