basically every single point here is wrong and most are easily refuted by looking at anthropic's s1
$16B revenue in first half means $32B for the whole year at that ARR. Divided into 47.2M devs gives us $677/yr per dev assuming that ZERO non-devs ever pay for Anthropic. Add in all the OpenAI and Chinese spend and spread them among developers only and the average is still only around $1k/yr/dev.
Top 1% of AI users spend $9,567.53/mo or $114810.36/yr while median spends $15.70 or $188.40/yr. 80% of the top 1% of AI users are backed by venture capital.
https://ramp.com/data/ai-index#adoption#overall
Anthropic + OpenAI seem to have in the area of 70-100M users.
Only problem is that 1e6*114,810.36 ~= $114.8B which exceeds stated income of OpenAI, Anthropic, and all the Chinese firms combined.
When you crunch those top 1% guys, you get a number more like just 250-500k or so accounting for almost all current AI spend which leaves 46.5-47M devs using very little AI. You can adjust these numbers by massive margins (around an order of magnitude) and still see that the math doesn't work out like you seem to think.
When all that venture capital/private equity gets crunched, those companies won't be able to afford to keep blowing a hundred thousand per dev. When they back off, AI sales will drop further lowering available venture capital risking a massive downward spiral.
I don't know anyone dev spending even 500$ a month on AI, but nearly everyone does use it to write code. And I work a broke public sector organization, not some fancy startup or big tech.