Inflation, Inequality and Debt: The Charts Scaring Wall Street - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-31/inflation... | https://archive.today/cqtVs - October 31st, 2026
- We find concerning the consensus forecasts for slower inflation in 2027 given recent data on prices. The consensus forecast for PCE inflation in 2027 is 2.5% and the average of the top 10 forecasts is 3.1%. Similarly, the Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections show a median forecast of 2.3% PCE inflation next year and no FOMC participant sees inflation above 2.6% in 2027.
- Thus, even the most pessimistic forecasts don’t envisage inflation running higher than current rates next year. These projections, which for private economists are based on the hope that the impulse from tariffs will fade, and oil prices will decline on the cessation of hostilities, have little support in the data. The PPI report shows scary trends in pipeline manufacturing goods prices with, for example, core processed goods PPI prices surging 24.3% over the last year. This is beginning to look like 2021/22, and if these soaring pipeline prices feed into finished goods prices, this may give Fed policymakers nightmares.
Housing and Food Now Take Nearly Half of What Americans Spend, the Most in 15 Years - https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/housing-food-... - October 31st, 2026
Bloomberg: Why the US Economy Looks Strong But Feels Bad to Many - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-29/why-the-u... | https://archive.today/mOC5J - October 29th, 2026
Pew Research: Many Americans Are Struggling to Afford Basic Necessities - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50197020 - October 2026
Gallup: A majority of Americans have low-quality jobs - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50195502 - October 2026
Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48827139 - July 2026