There are definitely nuances, and yes of course the prompt must make some difference, but I'm not convinced it makes as big a difference as some think, particularly a long prompt or complex setup of harnesses etc surrounding the LLM model.
To me the order of importance would be:
1. The model - if you use a terrible model you'll get bad output
2. The codebase - this definitely forms the model for what claude outputs to some extent.
3. The human operator, what they accept and reject etc.
4. Things like prompts, skills, harnesses etc. The quality of the prompt.
So I think our positions are really just a different ordering of what is important rather than fundamentally opposed.
Re Claude being a mirror, if it is it's a particularly distorting mirror which often changes things in subtle ways and is determined to make people feel smart and addicted to its output - it has been trained to do so after all. I really don't think a mirror is the best analogy, because it's too independent and seductive to be a mirror.
There's a good example of the sort of thing they produce without good guidance as a dead comment on this thread as a reply to yours. Encouraging, positive and superficially plausible, but without any actual meaning or intention. The equivalent of that in code is what we need to be wary of.