Businesses can have stalled growth, degrading margins, etc. etc. and then simply... reverse it. They can raise more money. Their competitors can get regulated out of existence. They can do a literal infinite number of things that cannot be factored into a model like "a projectile."
That's why the projectile analogy is stupid as fuck. It suggests you can presuppose the conclusion by presupposing the conclusion.
No one said it literally is a projectile. It's an analogy and model. The similarities are in the present tense maths. It's presumed and beyond having to be stated that businesses exist in a complex set of variables all of which could change and might not be as predictable as the valuation maths.
You're not wrong, you're just not adding anything to the conversation that any but the most uneducated do not already know and acknowledge.
It implies that you can know Anthropic's outcome from this slice of data. That is literally not true in any way at all.
Like it's not even remotely or analogously or roughly true.
Anthropic behaves like a high-growth business with a quarter of slowing growth. It does not behave like a baseball. Any conclusions you draw from analyzing it as a baseball will be de facto faulty because the two systems are nothing like one another. The most basic assumption of projectile analysis (that energy is not added in-flight) is the opposite of the most basic assumption of a business (that they are actively profit-seeking).
The analogy adds nothing except ambiguity at best and active falsehoods at worst.
No it doesn't. All I said was that given how little we have to go on and how early in the process we are, a minor 2nd or 3rd derivative slowdown isn't a positive signal. All indications are they they need additional orders of magnitude in revenue fairly soon.
I also never said that it wasn't self-propelled. I was starting to write about waiting to see if another stage of propulsion comes online but I deleted it.