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Astra and Opus also say it will take 6 weeks for a feature they can complete in 10 minutes

Isn't this because their training data (from human devs) have been answering "6 weeks" for so long? Only half-joking here.

The frontier labs will make damned sure their models can't do this, if they haven't already.

Astra 6.2 incoming…

Why would you trust a models opinion about its own possibly emergent ability?

That's my point. The human says it can't do it -- but maybe they can.

Ask it to test if it can.

"So I just asked Astra if it thinks it could do this and it said no, it can't." Same. Then I asked it to check the article and it said something like, "uh, it looks I was wrong...".