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Comment by dabinat | Hacker News Reader

The average consumer isn’t going to buy an electric car for climate reasons - they’re going to buy it to save money. So they want it cheap and they want to not have to wait ages for it to charge. The Chinese cars deliver on both fronts (provided sufficient infrastructure for fast charging). If the car doesn’t last 10 years that’s okay if they’re saving enough money.

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If you want to save money, you either buy from a domestic brand or a used Toyota Yaris and squeeze out as many miles from it as you can while having the option to use a local mechanic. Electric cars still make up a small minority of the market.

The average American could save a couple thousand dollars per year in fuel costs by driving an electric car. Over 12 years that could pay for a cheap electric car. If you drive a lot more than average, you would save even more money.

Americans are paying on average $50K for a new ICE car, gas prices are at an all time high, insurance premiums at an all time high, car service costs at an all time high, interest rates at an all time high, and they still think they're making a good deal. This is what I call financial illiteracy.

That's not only the new car that matters. The average car on the road in America is 12 years old, which means there's a lot of people who are not buying those brand new cars for $50,000. They're buying something older, more economical, and they're the ones who are going to start driving the demand for EVs. Either they will start paying a premium for the used EVs that do come available to them because it's worth it or they're going to start buying the cheap EVs if there are any on the market.

Average American could save that much by driving Yaris instead of truck.

While, trucks are popular. They're not that popular. The average American is not driving one. The average American is driving a smaller SUV which, while not as fuel efficient as the Yaris, is still fairly fuel efficient and is only sightly, efficient than a similar sized sedan

In the US sure, thanks to laws preventing Chinese EVs. But look around at other countries.

In Australia, EVs are now 25% of the new car market, that's far from a small minority.

And sure a used Toyota Yaris might be cheaper for now but it won't be for long. A new Yaris starts from around $30k, you can buy multiple new EVs for cheaper than that. Which has caused downward prices on used EVs, you can buy a 2nd hand Nissan leaf for $6500.

And due to our abundance of rooftop solar much of Australia have access to domestic electricity plans that have hours of free usage a day, meaning if you can charge at home you can charge for free which really pushes the value proposition further

As you look at those other countries (Australia) flooded with subsidised to below cost-to-make EVs, note how they are killing any chance of a sustainable local EV industry. It is a total governmental derreliction of duty to see how cheap Chinese imports played out with solar panels (and many other industries before that), and still welcome cheap EVs instead of attempting to kick start (or protect) a local option.

So how is that working out in the US?

They've banned EV imports in everything but name - yet why do we not see their EV industry taking off? Are US-made EV exports taking off? And do we see any of these low cost EVs being made domestically?

Last time I checked, they were doubling down on fossil fuel subsidies, and encouraging ICE cars. So I would argue this entire "dumping" argument was a Trump-induced fallacy to justify fossil fuel handouts.

Or for another example - has that local iPhone or Mac Pro production taken off, since China are supposedly "dumping" iPhones at below cost?

Shame on people falling for this protectionist stuff, again and again. I'm not saying that China isn't helping their renewal industries - but it's like US agricultural subsidies - every country does it, but people can't seem to accept that some countries do have a comparative advantage in certain industries.

The iPhone analogy is nonsensical. Apple produces iPhones at immense profit.

BYD’s margins are sub-4%.

There is no local car industry to protect in Australia, and Chinese cars here are more expensive than they are in China. That's why Chinese automakers are flocking overseas, the margins are much better, no subsidies needed.

Living in a place where weather makes AWD/4WD a very useful feature severely limits these choices.

Fast charging is massively overrated. Most people's charging needs are better taken care of by charging overnight at home. You're getting electricity cheaper than at fast chargers, and you aren't even altering your commute in any way to charge/refuel. The only issue with this is lack of residential charging infrastructure for apartment buildings, but getting 240V to a parking spot is orders of magnitude cheaper than building a fast charger.

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