I wonder if something else is happening to Intel
Nvidia Stock:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
Intel Stock:
Flash forward a couple more years to now it's all about efficient model training which sucks on generic CPUs so everyone is buying and designing other chips
Two big consumer pivots over 4-5 years and boom ...they're IBM and handed lifelines to shore up chip manufacturing in the US for strategic reasons but Intel essentially manufactures rotary phones right now. Maybe the fab biz will get modern designs right. We'll see
Their fabs are the weakest part of their business (I wonder why once AMD spun off GlobalFoundries so they could focus on the core product, they suddenly started doing well) Once they started making chips on TSMC's processes, wow, all of a sudden, theyre in the same league as Apple Silicon.
But, they still don't have many external customers for the fabs. Intels fab revenu is something like a tenth of TSMC's. Although, it'll probably grow year by year if they continue to match the capabilities of TSMC's chip processes.
But Intel chips use more electricity to do so. At data center scale that is not something shrugged off like homelab nerds shrug off the extra $50/month or whatever on their power bill.
Sure it is. At datacenter scale, there are precisely zero HPC vendors that have invested in Apple Silicon as an alternative to Ampere or Grace CPUs. Same goes for datacenters seeking to replace their Intel CPUs. Chips like the M-series are explicitly nonviable for Xeon-scale use cases.
More specifically, they focused on making laptop chips like Panther Lake (Intel's latest and greatest) and they meant to make a lot of their money here, and the data center chips weren't focused on as much (I think these would be something like the Xeon 6, but not sure, but I read that they also could have boosted production of older data center chips). But, as it turns out, laptop sales are down because of the demand for DRAM is sky high from the AI data center build out, and not as many people are willing to buy a super expensive laptop. If they had forecasted more correctly, they would have focused more on making data center chips.
Also, their forward guidance for 2027 is lower than expected too, because it will take awhile to shift their production towards building more data center chips, which they are in the middle of doing.
But, you may want to check other sources because have only been somewhat loosely following what's happening with Intel.
Stock was down three-fold between its peak around 2019 and its bottom in 2024/2025. Indeed, it was down three-fold in 2024/2025 from its 2000 dot-com peak.
Basically, imploding company, on its way for collapse.
With AI boom, there was more demand for ICs than production capacity. It almost didn't matter how bad your chips were -- someone would buy them, and at a healthy markup. This placed Intel in a very strong position to recover.
That recovered some value -- going above their previous high, but much less than 25 years of S&P500 growth. However, it's worth remembering the peak of $120 was less than double it's dot-com peak 25 years prior.
If AI boom doesn't materialize, Intel may, again, be on a path to death.
If it does materialize, but like the dot-com boom with a few winners and many losers, Intel will likely be one of the losers.
Ergo, falling value.
NVidia, in contrast, looks a lot more like the Amazon of the dot-com bust.
This assumes the shape of demand for computational intelligence which we don't know the answer to. Maybe 1-bit NNs do everything we want to do with LLMs. Maybe it means we span tens of thousands of them to do sundry tasks every day.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/
I figured the current owners of INTC stock are betting on the success of their fab business.. I think that's still to play out.
Intel in Q3 2026 had $16.5B in revenue and $3.3B of profit, and $13.7B and $4.4B in Q3 2025.
NVidia is doing much better than Intel, people are selling bonds and junk bonds to buy billions of dollars of NVidia cards that NVidia is making 75% gross margins on. They’re making the kind of profits that would make a drug dealer blush.
I used Q3 earnings for Intel because Nvidia hasn’t reported their Q3 earnings yet and Intel’s Q2 earnings showed losses in both 2026 and 2025.
Why? Is it hardware limitations or deficient software stack?
In any case, as nvidia is ignoring the gaming market, AMD and Intel both have a vacuum to fill, but I don't see them doing it.
Intel, especially, should have rushed out gaming cards as soon as nvidia shortages were predictable (2023, at least).
The problem I have is not that an old GPU can't be used for gaming (it can), it's that I am forced to upgrade from a perfectly working 660ti that once played far cry 3, 4 and 5 (and every other game I threw at it) because my kernel doesn't have support anymore (older drivers don't work on a newer kernel).
A new GPU with the power of a decade-old GPU but all the latest software support would be great. Right now, if I want to see certain web-pages (WebGL), I have to buy a new GPU, but there isn't any low-priced GPUs anymore.
Still not great given that I paid about the same for a new-in-unopened-box RTX 3070 a couple years ago, but price increases no lower-end cards without enough VRAM for AI at least haven't skyrocketed like the top end of the market.
I think the cards are probably fine for gaming though. I haven't used these cards, just the numbers I've seen floating around are pretty underwhelming.
Asus tried, with GDDR5 versions of the GT710 circa 2021 in a very sensible fanless, "bus-powered", single slot design; alas being an older design did not help much with stability with Nouveau drivers, though on the Windows side it did 10 as well as XP which wasn't a bad deal for spending a week digitizing a bunch of tapes with a good old BT868 capture card!
Bonus point for proper VGA and DVI connectors too, just one weird omission - a half-height card only supplied with a full height bracket?
It seems to me that nvidia bubble is still to burst. There is a trust me bro circle where Nvidia somehow sold GPU to itself so it can host someone else's models. Maybe three years ago or a little more they announced they plan to move away from consumer end and focus on cloud. Back then it did not make much sense because everybody though "how the f Nvidia will manage clouds like AWS?" And their business model seems to me that it is a shared risk model where Nvidia don't "own" the cloud but pay for its GPU to have that market share. I think it would make much sense if the thin layer those, how did the greedy musk said, neocloud/cloudfronts or whatever, were not so brittle due to the lack of market demand.
I have the impression they had a gold strategy for them but for some reason they rushed it too much and now they broke the market before they could profit from it.
I can imagine that if they didn't hoard their own resources to create scarcity artificiality, they would possibly have a stronger position in the market. I can only think they did this because (A) they know the current government will bail them out and (B) someone was worried that China could hoard those GPUs first.
But as I said, I don't understand much of the topic, but it seems to me they are try to get as much money as soon as possible and that looks scam-ish to me. They all put investment rounds too close to each other, started creating concerning stories and "rogue" AIs at the same time. Maybe I'm being too paranoid, but so far those guys have been pulling some hat tricks and I think I know who will pay the bill
Edit: Also I think the big ones artificially produced better numbers by doing massive layoff rounds. Depending on how those happen, it produces almost an immediate loss that can be smoothed, and then a peak on profit, and then we will see if their numbers keep up 2 or 3 quarter after that. Maybe I have trust issues, but man, this does smell weird.
Would it not make more sense to ask questions in this case?
things are changing but there is a sort of "no one ever got fired for using nvidia for inference." thing going on.
https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/ai-world-oracle-bri...