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Comment by cowlevel | Hacker News Reader

My interpretation is that the stock market is just reflecting the rising value of power/influence assets relative to currency, which is to say, the falling value of currency relative to power/influence (which stocks are). Stocks aren't going up because the companies are that much better, they're going up because the macroeconomy is that much more fucked.

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How would you differentiate between currency influence and power influence?

Power is being able to get people to do things you want them to do. It's become clear that you can do that a lot better with stocks than within currency, although you can also do it with a huge amount of currency.

I submit exhibit 1: the US monetary supply. [1] We're 'printing' money like there's no tomorrow. Up ~6% in a single year, well over a trillion dollars. That's obviously going to make an economy look increasingly nonsensical.

I increasingly get the same feeling I did as back in the early 2000s when there were endless 'house flipping' shows on TV where somebody would go buy a house on an insta-improved loan, add some granite counter tops and mop the floor, then resell it within a couple of weeks for $20k profit and repeat. Not sure how people didn't see that was basically 'Bubble - The TV Show!'

[1] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

I don't think this chain of arguments holds with Intel.

Fwiw, I bought 100 shares when they were 19€/share and sold 80 when they reached 100 this summer, so I followed it's development somewhat.

The low was itself after it's share dropped by like 25+%. That's what made me buy them - I thought "no way is the USA government going to let them go insolvent, their losses are gonna get socialized for sure". One year later Trump announced a large injection into Intel, causing the stock price to overshoot my expectation massively.

This fall is just it's share going closer to a more realistic valuation after Trump blew it up, I think it's gonna settle around 40 in a year or so

I find it endlessly amusing that America is emulating China's state capitalism now. If you can't beat them join them!

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