Study estimates 75% of NFL players who died over 15-year span had CTE
nbcnews.com
nbcnews.com
A lot of football players also suffer from mental health issues which, not to state the obvious, is likely not helped by banging your head all the time.
It's well established that the effects of repeated head trauma are cumulative, with progressively longer healing periods, worse symptoms, etc. And that sub-concussive impacts also accumulate along with the concussive impacts.
From the article: The bulk of the head impacts that these former NFL players experienced didn’t occur at the NFL level. They occurred at the collegiate level ... and at the high school level and in many cases the youth level. And all of those cumulative hits to the head added up to result in an increased risk,” said Daneshvar.
Requiring a child to play football should be actual child abuse, and even allowing it should be frowned upon the way that letting a child play with a blowtorch is.
But if it is significantly worse than other sports, why not single it out as the worst thing ever?
Several sports increase the risk of CTE, but football has been more studied, I think because the incidence of obviously impared former players is higher than in other sports.
Rugby and ice hockey are certainly bad, but at least the impacts are generally limited to play near the ball/puck, whereas with American football, essentially every player has an impact on every play (WR blocking on rush plays, etc).
The fact that they're a repeated part of the game and not occasional incidents is very, very bad.
I've gotten a concussion falling off an electric scooter. But slamming my head on the pavement isn't the point of riding an electric scooter, and if you're doing it regularly, you're doing something wrong. Unlike contact football.
also there are studies on this
McKee et al. (2023) – Neuropathologic and Clinical Findings in Young Contact Sport Athletes Exposed to Repetitive Head Impacts (JAMA Neurology) [https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2...]
Alosco et al. (2017) – Age of First Exposure to Tackle Football and Later-Life Cognitive Impairment and Neuropsychiatric Symptoms (Translational Psychiatry) [https://doi.org/10.1038/tp.2017.197]
even intl football headers have concerns
At that size ratio from kids to pro, they should be rivaling Dark Helmet from Space Balls.
Provide your data Mr. Thrwaway, if that even is your real name.
Correct. NFL payers are better paid, get better medical care, have better training and equipment, and their brains are more developed.
If they don’t play and everyone else does, their development will be many years behind their peers which makes it unlikely they could play at a high level.
But maybe you’re okay with that.
And like any responsible parents, they presumably also don't just defer to what they're elementary aged children "want to do with their life" nor feed into the exaggeration that "everybody else" does anything at all, let alone play tackle football.
If you disagree with the dangers of the sport or are afraid of shaping your children's life choices for their own benefit, that's fine for you, but the rhetorical and snide way you presume others should share that view seems strange.
The correct thing to do is to ban tackle football below a certain age. Probably college. That levels the playing field.
Sorry about the misread!
This is the only wise position. Despite the common and misleading film tropes, children do not know themselves perfectly. Often the adults "holding them back" are doing those children a great favor.
At the same time, a lot of parents (myself included) steered kids to other sports. That had another effect: there was even more pressure on parents who didn't care about CTE (and their kids) to get into football because kiddie leagues and especially high school teams were short of players. This happened to a friend whose two boys were strong hockey players, the coach at their school pushed them to try out for football the following season.
Our science writers at BU have been writing about CTE research for at least that long. Oldest I could find was 2010. We've published a lot on the topic on our main news site and our science publication:
Brink CTE stories: https://www.bu.edu/brink/tag/cte/
BU Today CTE stories going back to 2010: https://www.bu.edu/today/tag/cte/
Some favorites:
This 5 part series: https://www.bu.edu/brink/series/cte-how-bu-is-changing-the-g...
This story about Youth Football: https://www.bu.edu/articles/2018/youth-football-linked-to-ea...
And this video from the Director of the CTE research center talking about how these discoveries impacted her as a huge football fan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUsDvKyhtA4
I'm a creative director @ BU and our designers have occasionally helped our editorial teams with story designs for these types of research stories. It's been interesting watching the progression of the research over the years and as a parent as well I would not let my kids play football based on the research. There are other, less risky sports they can enjoy. Skiing, Martial Arts, etc. I don't believe we can or should protect them from all risk, but this CTE research has been a clear enough signal in how football is played for me to be wary of letting them play.
Lift weights and play tennis or baseball.
I think it's more destructive to control and remove your child from the possibility of risk at the cost of preventing them from learning to navigate the world with the information at hand to do so in way they can manage.
Encouraging them to get a drivers license is fine (run cross-country), but getting them a driver's license and buying your 16-year old a sports car with bald tires and no seatbelts (football) is negligent.
Yes, you’re optimizing for your kids individual life but nothing we Americans do anymore is holistic. It’s all short-term thinking.
I'm quite thankful that I never ended up on the team, and think the entire concept of high school football is incredibly stupid given what we know about CTE.
Have you ever seen ice hockey? Okay well imagine that if it was on a field and if you made it into a really fast and violent contact sport.
Ice hockey is a really boring sport.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandy#Bandy_and_ice_hockey
Ice hockey is generally used to mean the specific Olympic sport invented in Canada and played professionally in the NHL at the same level as the NFL.
Football and boxing involve guaranteed sub-concussion head impacts every session and likely full concussions at least a few times a year.
Anecdotally, I have many friends, of both sexes, who like to go skiing, and after many decades none of them has ever been injured. Some falls from time to time are unavoidable, but if the speed is not excessive for the terrain and the fall is managed correctly, most falls will not result in injuries.
the freeride stuff is really popular now. i fortunately never got into it, seems a lot riskier
It’s a sport many people step away from for long periods of time (I.e. the muscles aren’t in shape and they're rusty) and it demands a lot unless you’re sticking to bunny slopes.
But its also a lot of fun. Its crazy how much we crave excitement in life but that excitement often carries enormous risks.
People who do not like unnecessary risks can go downhill as slow as they choose. Skiing speed is controllable, unless you are an inexperienced beginner, in which case you should not attempt to go downhill where that is too steep.
"This analysis revealed that risk ranged from a 5-fold increase in Alzheimer’s disease, through an approximately 4 fold increase in motor neurone disease, to a 2 fold Parkinson’s disease in former professional footballers compared to population controls."
https://www.thepfa.com/news/2019/10/21/field-study-increased...
"...the odds of having chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) increased by 34% each year [of ice hockey] played, and 18 of 19 National Hockey League players had CTE."
https://www.bumc.bu.edu/camed/news-events/articles/2024/larg...
They don’t even compare tbh
FWIW, the NFL seemingly increasingly penalizes and expands the definition of unsafe hits every year. If people just liked the violence, BKB or power slap would be much more popular than they are.
0 - https://apnews.com/article/cte-australia-rugby-league-035e24...
That being said, rugby is a different game. Football for the most effected players is one crushing impact per down, and a lot of waiting around and planning. Without helmets, half of the players would be knocked out cold. Rugby is not like that.
Every down in football is basically like a sumo tachi-ai (initial charge.) It's absurdly stressful without a helmet to do it even once a day between professionals. People would have to stop leading with their heads.
> If people just liked the violence
This is irrelevant. I love gridiron football, I think it's the best team sport ever invented, especially for spectators. I don't just like the violence, I like the violence. I have to accept the fact that I might not like it as much if people weren't leading with their heads. It's also the smartest game in my opinion, and I'm amused by upper middle-class people in the US thinking that "soccer" is classy (because Europe) when all the players are so much dumber (let's talk about heading; that ball is soft, too.)
American football is an atrocity, though. Even at the professional level, it doesn't pay enough for how bad it hurts you (and careers are shortest for the people who see the most impacts.) At the college level, forget it.
Boxing is by far the worst from this point of view, much worse than the combat sports that allow knock-outs but also have other alternatives, like MMA.
Combat sports like judo or fencing are much safer than American football.
The equipment to make it safe is the problem - it allows you to take orders of magnitude more blows to the head. There were many people saying that to improve the safety of football, you should get rid of helmets entirely.
Padded helmets in football and padded gloves in boxing serve the same purpose as having filters on cigarettes. Filters on cigarettes allow you to smoke a lot more, and a lot of the stuff that is worst for you is not filtered out.
To the NFL's credit, they have made rules and equipment changes to address this.
I played football in high school & college. Did I get hurt? Yes. But I also got hurt in other sports. My worst injury by far was in baseball (it required ~22 stitches & I couldn't see out of one eye for a while).
With every activity there's a tradeoff with risk.
Let's say we take tackle football off the table. We ban it from high schools, justifying it based on a study showing it produced 3.96 injuries per 1,000 practices or competitions & 8.22 concussions per 10,000 (the highest for both).[1]
Okay, but then do we also ban woman's soccer?
It's the second highest, at 2.65 injuries per 1,000 practices or competitions and 6.11 concussions per 10,000.
Or why let our children take any risk?
As a parent, I know I can't shelter my children. They have to take some risk. I let my children ride a bike, knowing full well there is a non-zero chance he could get by a car. We live in a big city & I let my pre-teen walk to meet a friend at a local burger joint for lunch, knowing full well there are bad people in the world who might do something untoward to him.
As for CTE specifically, I am very concerned about in the NFL. I have mixed feelings if I'm complicit in things by watching. As a diehard Bears fan, I found Dave Duerson's story heartbreaking. I'm supportive of the guardian helmets and hope the league starts to mandate them.
But the athletes in the NFL are not like amateurs. They are far bigger, far stronger, far faster. You can't take the CTE data from professional & extrapolate it to high school, etc.
It's fairly likely they'll change the rules to reduce injuries. In the US, they already banned kids under 10 from deliberately heading, with some practice rules after that.
And ultimately, changing the rules is sort of like a ban. You can't (competitively) play the original sport.
Soccer is addressing the concussion issue by banning headers. I think the current rule is no headers for U12s and below. That will probably be adjusted upwards to U14s at some point.
Additionally, people in college and NFL have played waaay more football which increases the chance of CTE. 95% of HS football players will not play beyond HS.
Removing HS football and lower wouldn’t make a big difference and would negatively impact the most people.
† https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/07/12/world-cup-headers-2...
I'd rather my child accept a high risk of sprain, than even a low change of CTE.
I know a ex-professional football player that doesn't let his children play football.
My daughter does Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu since a few years already now: her uncle is a black belt. She skateboards too. Those aren't "safe" sports. BTW she already dislocated someone else's arm (nothing serious but the other person wanted to "see if BJJ works": she got her answer).
And yet there are sports I won't let her do, like proximity flying or basejumping for example.
Saying: "All sports have risks, so all sports are equally risky" is a logical fallacy.
I did, and I agree with the comment you responded to.
Pretty much all my worst injuries are related to football, sprains, hip issues, knee issues, and a concussion that took me out of a game in college.
Or why let our children take any risk?
Why let our children take all risks?
I fear I have some mild anger problems. I can't tell you if any of it is even related to football, but if I could go back and stop myself from playing football in middle and high school, I would in a heartbeat. I hated the sport and felt trapped. I imagine I'm not the only kid with a similar story. And just because I never had an official injury doesn't mean the sport had no effect on my developing brain.
Kids don't always have the autonomy to make decisions for themselves; we don't let them use cigarettes or alcohol, get tattoos, etc. The sport has the ability to leave lasting damage on those playing it unlike other sports because impacts are intrinsic to the game as it's currently played. Other sports like soccer can and have banned headers.
I think it's reprehensible to continue allowing children to continue playing contact football.
I did for eight years, from 5th grade through 12th grade. There was a lot of value in learning aspects of teamwork, comradery, and working towards a common goal. However, given the hard data we have on the potential dangers, I am not letting either of my sons play. There are plenty of other ways (and sports) to get those lessons with much lower risks to their developing brains.
I think we can all agree that injuries to the brain are especially worrisome for children, especially when compared to common baseball injuries (hamstring, elbow, rotator cuff, etc.)
Most of a football game is spent waiting for resumption of play, while girls soccer is continuous.
Football also introduces a different type of collision than those experienced on a soccer field (conceding girls soccer can be pretty intense). Dangerous football plays are by design, often straight ahead collisions, while contact in soccer is often incidental.
We are finding lifelong debilitating disease in football players, at rates far exceeding other sports, so I think it's fair to scrutinize the risk. Entering a profession that promises a 75% likelihood of degenerate brain injury is a sobering thought. Then consider high school and college football players are exposing themselves to the risk of developing some form of this disease before they're old enough to understand the risk, and without a luxury lifestyle to show for it.
FWIW, I played American football for 10 years and I relished contact, but older and wiser now I think I could have scratched that itch in a safer way.
In other sports it's called an accident. In football it's called Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy. The equivalent in baseball would be if the rules/style of the game required to batter the bat ball by smashing it on their head every single time.
The article also explains how it works, and while someone that stops playing football after high school stops the increase of the "cumulative blows to the head" counter, it still leaves a trace.
Considering that by 50 you'd have the brain of an 80 year old, I don't see why expose myself to that risk in the first place.
I coach middle school girls. It's a blast. It has by far the most strategy of any youth sport.
If I had sons, I wouldn't let them play tackle football before high school, and I would have to think long and hard about that even.
I enjoyed flag football as a coach so much that I built my own play creation and team management software (https://getplaylook.com). One of the things that you get with flag at an early age because you aren't so focused on the physical side of the game is a higher emphasis on technique, particularly route running, and play design. Good play design can scheme people open, even if your team isn't very fast.
yes. unfortunately, more than one thing can be a problem at the same time.
Unfortunately the number of brains studied isn't large enough to determine whether different positions have different levels of CTE. I'd guess that kickers would have very low risk compared to other positions, as they are rarely involved in collisions. Their stats hint that is the case, but the p-values are ridiculously high due to the small sample size.
1. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
While soccer doesn’t tend to have as many concussion level impacts, there’s a lot of evidence that repeated sub-concussive impacts are just as bad.
Kickers do kickoffs, extra points, and field goals. Besides that they're not on the field. The only time hitting a kicker is allowed is if it's some sort of fake play where the kicker ends up running with the ball. Even then, there tends to be a gentleman's agreement where teams won't rough up the opposing kicker, as doing so means their own kicker is fair game.
I knew one guy who was a kicker for a PAC-12 team (back when it was the PAC-10). He said he was hit only once in 4 years. Earlier in the game he'd insulted someone on the other team, and the next time they were both on the field, the guy hit him from behind long after the whistle blew. That's not really a football injury as much as it's a violent crime.
As far as I'm aware, no kicker has ever been found to have CTE (though the sample size for them is very small), and their concussion rates are much lower than average. I think the studies on kicker concussion rates overestimate how often they sustain head injuries, as they likely incorporate data from less competitive colleges and high schools where kickers also play other positions.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140707134223.h...
> Leonetti recently spoke to retired players alongside EarQ at a meeting of the Chicago chapter of the NFL Players Association. When Leonetti asked how many players had experienced concussions during their career, they all raised their hands. When Leonetti asked how many have experienced hearing loss approximately 25 percent raised their hands. When he asked how many have tinnitus approximately 50 percent raised their hands.
All sports carry some risk. I ride a road bike. I wouldn't tell others how to weigh the risks of their sports of choice. I just wouldn't pay to watch someone fly a wing suit, knowing how some of those people have died.
As someone who has been doing backcountry snowboarding for a long time all I can say that adrenaline is a hell of a drug and in general it’s not that hard to guess which of your friends will die (have died) doing this stuff. Avalanches just don’t care about how cool your line is.
Though nowhere near as bad as my friend who also does parachuting (wingsuits mainly these days). Once people get into base jumps and/or proximity flying end never seems to be that far away.
I'm sure there's some obscure spelunker who died in a cave, unknown to anyone but their friends. It's the commercialization of risk for entertainment that makes it icky. At some point along that curve it's OK for a civilized society to just say no, to boxing, for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Urschel
> In August 2015, an incident gave him a taste of what a prolonged NFL career could mean. Urschel suffered a helmet-to-helmet collision with Ravens safety Terrence Brooks during an open-field drill in practice. The impact knocked the OL unconscious.
> While recovering, Urschel realized that he could not solve high-level mathematical proofs and noticed a drop in his cognitive abilities and sharpness. It took almost a month for his mental clarity to return, giving him a firsthand glimpse of brain trauma's dangers.
> Subsequently, in spring 2016, he secretly enrolled in MIT's applied mathematics doctoral program. He juggled MIT coursework during the week with Ravens games on Sundays, staying up late to balance both commitments.
> Since his early NFL retirement, Urschel completed his PhD in 2021, served as a member at Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study, and returned to MIT as a tenure-track assistant professor in 2023.
https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/legitimate-liability-ex-ra...
Especially recently, international contact sports have become quite aware of the brain issue and have moved a lot to change things. Even as an avid NFL fan [0], I am shocked at how violent things in rugby used to be [1]. Aussie rules hits are similarly gruesome.
But in the last few decades, the big hits are much more severely punished. If you watch any international events then you'll see just how seriously they take head trauma now. Red cards are being pulled for things that even 20 years ago would not be considered a highlight, just part of the game.
NZ is in quite the crisis these days over their All Blacks [2] and the near death of the rugby pipeline from schools to the professional level. Over there the cause is simply that mothers aren't allowing their children to play for fear of the head trauma.
If you could get studies for these other codes, then you could, I imagine, get a nice neat graph illustrating the relationship between head trauma and CTE, using the many codes as 'trials' in a way.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oPU3ZuynIo those 1979 hits are just jarring!
What are your thoughts on how to redesign the line of scrimmage?
Current line of scrimmage situation is the worst case scenario. Linemen are a couple feet away from each other and they start from a crouched position. They explode up and hit the opposing line, very often with their helmet/crown, down after down, 60-70 times a game. You could not plan a better way to get CTE.
1) Neutral zone at the line, they start 2 yards away from each other.
2) Have to start from standing position, and/or:
3) First contact has to be arms
It would be a bit of an adjustment like it was for dynamic kickoff. You're never going to stop all head trauma in a contact sport but the mechanics of the line positions are basically designed for it.
Or would the center be at the ball and do a short long snap to the backfield?
What would be considered a "standing position"? I guess both feet on the ground, can't use hands or arms to brace against the ground or self.
There are some side effects (goodbye tush push) but it drastically reduces helmet contact for those 8-10 players every down.
And indeed, disallowing brace against ground is all you'd need to get the standing result.
In MMA there are alternative winning methods which decide a large fraction of the matches, even if hitting the head still remains the most frequent method for winning a match before the time limit (strangling is the 2nd most frequent, and unlike head knockouts it does not have persistent effects even when the loser fails to accept defeat, strikes to the liver are the 3rd, then joint locks and strikes to the legs).
Moreover, a MMA fighter has much more effective defense methods than a boxer, so a much lower percentage of the attempts to hit the head of the opponent are successful, in comparison with a boxing match. Also, the lighter MMA gloves do not allow strikes to the head as powerful as in boxing, because those would result in hand injuries.
MMA matches look more gory, because of frequent skin cuts, which result in bleeding, but those pose very little danger in comparison with the strikes to the head given with heavy boxing gloves, which do not produce visible external bleeding but they produce much more harmful internal damage to the brain.
In any case, sports like boxing or MMA are unsuitable for amateurs. They are acceptable only for professionals who are willing to accept the risk of health damage in exchange for a sum of money big enough to allow them an early retirement, hopefully before accumulating too much damage.
But then again I’m generally suspicious of people strongly condemning the free, legal, and informed choices of others.
That study stopped short of establishing a link to CTE specifically, which can only be definitively diagnosed postmortem. But smaller autopsy studies have found CTE in former soccer players.
We focus a lot on Boxing and American football, but I suspect the risk of CTE is far more widespread across sports than is talked about (every concussion, hard contact, head impact, etc all add up)
Already at the JV level I saw multiple concussions in games. Not kos but guys woozy liked they'd been punched. Nobody cared back then (US south).
- No collisions, no shoulder checking. Tackling should be done by wrapping your arms around another player.
- No contact above the shoulders.
- Only allowed to tackle players who have the ball.
IMO it keeps the athleticism and strategy of the sport largely intact.
I think it more likely they will get better helmet tech which is already happening. Some players even where extra padding on the outside of their helmet now.
The game will change somewhat, like it has for kickoffs and protecting the QB, to minimize injury. But fundamentally anything that trends towards "no collisions" will, I think, be a non starter.
I think even professional Rugby players have marginal incidence of CTE compared to American Football.
I agree with you on combat sports with head strikes. But Looking at kids activities it's hard to imagine that rugby, handball, lacrosse, etc would be CTE inducing as a pre college sport activity.
Without much evidence my intuition is that this is much more specific to American Football where players are effectively using what is meant to be protection gear and using it as a weapon to strike other players.
Even these studies are heavily weighted to those with suspected injuries and so not a good sample.
> They found 96% (27 of 28) of professional players had CTE pathology (18 of 19 NHL, 9 of 9 non-NHL professionals), 46% of college, juniors and semi-professional players (13 of 28) and 10% (2 of 21) youth and high school players.
https://www.bumc.bu.edu/camed/news-events/articles/2024/larg...
There's also these guardian caps to reduce some of the shock, but they're not very effective - they absorb like 10% of the blow, and you don't see very many players wearing them in-game.
I have no idea whether it is as prevalent. That would be very interesting data.
What is a surprise is that football is still celebrated as a great American pastime to this day and not much is being done to discourage playing it.
And on that same note, I bet boxing has a lot of CTE cases too. They just don't know it. Does anyone think it's a good idea to have your head repeatedly being hit?
Human heads were not designed to take hits like that. A woodpecker? Yes. A human? No.
Or with technology we have today, not allow any helmet contact to any part of the body. You could outfit the helmets with a sensor and a light so the refs know it happened.
Yes, this would drastically change the game and how it is played. But it would probably still be entertaining enough to draw in the crowds they hope to draw in.
I wonder about that. In theory it seems like it should help, but at the same time, there were lots of fatalities in the early, leather-helmet days of the sport.
Honestly, the simplest solution to me seems to be switching to flag football or something similar.
They either need to make it safer or stop the sport altogether. Or at least stop letting kids play tackle. If an adult wants to make that choice, maybe we let them, but don't let adults make that choice for kids.
> but at the same time, there were lots of fatalities in the early, leather-helmet days of the sport.
This is a good point. We'd need to know if that was because medical science was worse or if it was actually less safe.
We know that players would not be "far more cautious," because they were not more cautious in the era of leather helmets.
>The bulk of the head impacts that these former NFL players experienced didn’t occur at the NFL level. They occurred at the collegiate level ... and at the high school level and in many cases the youth level. And all of those cumulative hits to the head added up to result in an increased risk,” said Daneshvar.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/nfl-cte-players-s...
That said, it may not be solvable. It's not just helmet-to-helmet collisions that are the problem. You often see players make a diving grab, and their head slams into the ground when they land. That's micro-concussion territory that may be unavoidable. But, my guess is it's an 80/20 rule. If you somehow eliminate player-to-helmet hits altogether, you'd probably end up in a good enough place.
You can solve this by playing all the games on sand!
Boxing/MMA has the same problem, no matter what rules or gear exist at the end of the day getting hit in the head multiple times consistently for years is going to cause problems.
An obvious choice is to ban the sport but 1. Realistically that won't happen 2. If its consenting adults that know the risks I'm not sure it'd be morally correct to ban it.
The young men and women are putting their health and safety on the line potentially with life altering injuries, they should be compensated for it. Doubly so since beforehand the universities were more than happy to profit solely from their work.
People will adapt.
You can count on people saying it's impossible, 'this isn't football', players saying 'I can't play this way; I'll retire', etc. That happens with every change, including the ones that all the players accept and play with now, and which are part of the most popular sport in the U.S. Not unlike responses to changes in technology.
Already, things like helmet-to-helmet hits, spearing helmet-first, etc. are against the rules (I don't know the exact rules). Players can control what body parts make contact with what on the opposing player - obviously: in other things in life, including other sports, you don't instinctively lead with your skull.
I would guess that blocking between the offensive and defensive lines would be the biggest change. They begin inches apart and slam into each other at the start of each play, and generally whoever gets leverage lower will win. I think it would just look different, more arms and less body-to-body.
Also, are there sensors for helmets that would pickup impacts? I think sensing the accoustics / vibrations might be sufficient.
I still think it's dangerous and changes are needed, but today's players are safer.
It wouldn't be shocking if the rates of players from longer ago were higher but I don't think we can necessarily conclude that, there isn't enough data. The big factor seems to be number of head impacts over time. It could be the case that more recently than the 60s that kids started earlier and played more games, then we might see more CTE even if the total number of savage hits is less.